Uncertain future for ISIS after killing of Abu al-Hussein al-Qurashi

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's announcement of the death of the ISIS leader Abu al-Hussein al-Qurashi has raised questions about the future of the terrorist organization after the killing of its fourth leader in a short period of time.

On Sunday, April 30, Erdogan announced in televised statements the killing of Abu al-Hussein al-Qurashi in a Turkish intelligence operation in northern Syria, adding that Turkish intelligence had been tracking him for a long time.

Fourth leader of the organization

ISIS had announced the selection of Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi as the leader of the organization in December 2022 after the killing of his predecessor, Abu al-Hassan al-Qurashi, who had taken over the leadership of the organization after the killing of Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi in an air strike on northern Idlib in northwestern Syria in March 2022.

Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi had succeeded the organization's first leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who was killed by an American strike in Idlib in October 2019.

First tier exposed

Hesham El-Naggar, a researcher in the affairs of Islamist groups, said that the first tier and leaders of the terrorist organization are exposed, which led to the successive targeting of its leaders one after the other within short periods, meaning either that the organization is infiltrated or that there is a severe division that allows its members to betray each other, and in some cases there are elements within the organization working for foreign intelligence agencies.

Naggar added in a special statement to the Reference that the central organization remains in a state of weakness, division, and exposure of the leadership, while the distant branches of ISIS, such as in Africa, remain the strongest and most able to protect their leaders.

Evidence of defeat and brokeness

For his part, Munir Adeeb, a researcher in the affairs of terrorist groups, said that the killing of Abu al-Hussein al-Qurashi is evidence of the organization's defeat and brokeness recently, as he is the organization’s fourth leader, allof whom were killed within close intervals, which is evidence of its weakness and severe brokeness.

Adeeb confirmed in a special statement to the Reference that the organization will be greatly affected and has recently begun to move towards latency, especially after many confrontations and after the noticeable activity of al-Qaeda, which has risen at the expense of ISIS.

He added that the defeat of ISIS is an indication that the future bears a new presence for al-Qaeda, especially in Africa, where it began to appear more at the expense of ISIS, which has no real presence except in the Middle East where it originated.

He added that while ISIS has reached Africa, it has become much weaker than it was in the Middle East, and the establishment of the international coalition to confront ISIS in 2014 has succeeded in liquidating four leaders of the organization.

Adeeb noted that if a comparison is made between ISIS and al-Qaeda, we will find a huge difference, especially after the killing of the first leader of al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden, in 2011, while its second leader was not killed until ten years later in 2022, which indicates that al-Qaeda is strong and capable of armed operations, unlike what is happening with ISIS.