Iran's legislative elections: Expanding influence of conservatives and completely excluding dissidents

Legislative elections are the most important in the history of Iran, especially as they come after the events that occurred in the country during 2019 and early 2020; from the increasing impact of US sanctions, the collapse of the economy, and popular protests against the austerity of the mullahs ’austerity regime, leading to the killing of the Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in American raid.

These events affected the course of the parliamentary electoral process, which started on February 21, 2020, as it witnessed low turnout rates by about 40%, according to unofficial results published by the Fars News Agency, as it was not less than 40 years ago, at least 50%.

The preliminary results showed according to the election commission which was held on the morning of Sunday, February 23, 2020, the governors won 191 seats out of 241 settled, while the reformists got 16, and the independents won 34.

The mullahs' lies

As usual, the Iranian regime worked to try to imply that low participation rates had nothing to do with excluding the majority of candidates, but rather, according to the guide, Ali Khamenei on February 23, 2020, this is due to "media pumping that foreign media practiced for months and intensified with the approaching election date, to frustrate the Iranians, discouraging them from participating in the legislative elections.

Khamenei claimed that these means did not hesitate to use the slightest opportunity, and invoked the Coronavirus in order to discourage the Iranian people from participating in the elections, according to the official website of the guide.

Questions are raised about the fate of the next parliament in light of the control of the conservatives and the Revolutionary Guards candidates over it, and how the conservatives will deal with external files, especially the nuclear agreement, and whether the next parliament prepares the possibility of conservatives winning the presidential elections.

Diplomacy or confrontation?

According to analytical perspectives (in English), most of them in the November 2019 protests and the 2020 Parliament elections, and the emergence of their economic events will continue to deteriorate during 2020;

They focused on being authors on a great basis in foreign files, especially as they were very impressive in Parliament.

Looking towards the presidency

The start of the election play, by excluding reformist candidates and entering the majority of conservatives in the next parliament, indicates the desire of conservatives to extract the presidential seat from the reformist movement led by the current President, Hassan Rouhani.

Military dictatorship

The victory of the Revolutionary Guards candidates in the Iranian Parliament elections, and the news of the victory of the former Tehran mayor, "Muhammad Baqer Qalibaf", headed by Parliament, a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards Air Force, also indicate an increase in the influence of the Guards and their penetration into the political, social and economic affairs of the country.

The Swiss newspaper "Neue Zürcher" says in a report on Sunday, February 23, 2020 that the Iranian regime establishes a military dictatorship at the expense of the people, after detailing the parliamentary elections in Iran in favor of one camp, which is the hardline wing. Although Khamenei is the cleric at the head of the state.

What after the arrival of the governors?

Mohammad Abadi, a researcher specializing in Iranian affairs, explains that the victory of the conservatives and the hardliners was expected, and their majority acquisition indicates that the state will follow the same line, the guide with the clergy, the Revolutionary Guards, and silence any opposition voice even if it is weak and unheard of.

The researcher on the Iranian issue, in a statement to the Reference that the Iranian parliament does not have a significant impact on the internal and external files, in November 2019 the parliament was not aware of the decision to raise gasoline prices, so the separation in these files for the guide.