Impact of climate change on growing terrorism in West Africa

Most studies on terrorism have delved for the past five years into the explanation of the phenomenon in a bid to lay out its true reasons, which may be cited as outdated religious discourse, social factors such as poverty, marginalization and political persecution of some Muslims in particular regions.

However, recent studies have tried to explain terrorism according to other dimensions such as climate change, food insecurity and water scarcity, especially in Africa and the Middle East.

In this regard, German-based environment development center Adelphi affirmed in its study "Insurgency, Terrorism and Organized Crime in a Warming Climate: Analyzing the Links between Climate Change and Non-State Armed Groups" that climate change fuelled terrorism in some hotbeds worldwide.

 Terrorism is caused by a number of complicated factors. For example, the tribal factor and the Soviet Union's occupation of Afghanistan were the main drivers for the emergence of Taliban and al-Qaeda organizations.

In the Middle East, sectarian persecution has been the main reason for the emergence of ISIS in Iraq. Poverty and food insecurity have been the main driver for terrorism in the Sahel, Sahara and West Africa, especially in Mali, Niger and Nigeria.

This study will focus on the impact of climate change on terrorist groups in West and North Africa.

Ecological and social dimensions of climate change

Over the past two decades, voices called for a stand against climate change in the wake of greenhouse effect and gas emissions caused by excessive use of fuel.

Following the emergence of ISIS in 2014, many voices argued that climate change was a reason of terrorism, urging for reining in the social impacts of climate change worldwide.

 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has said the earth temperature is increasing by 2° C this decade, and probably will continue rising in the coming twenty years.

As drought increases, the area of pasture land and cattle will decline, and many tribes in Africa will be in real danger as they rely heavily on raisig cattle.

These environmental impacts on agriculture and pasture land will lead to social turmoil that may foster terrorism.

Roughly 1.6 billion people suffer from water scarcity, and the number may rise to 2.8 billion by 2025.

Climate change hits Africa

Between 75 and 250 million people are amenable to water scarcity in Africa, according to IPCC data.   Africa's crop production is expected to fall by 50% in the coming years due to rising rates of drought.

Terror in the Lake Chad

Boko Haram has benefited from worsening climate change and shrinking pasture land in the Lake Chad region. Water scarcity in the Lake Chad has led to food insecurity for roughly 5 million people in Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria.

UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed said during the World Water Week that the Lake Chad had shrunk by 90% and roughly 30 million people would be in danger of water scarcity and food insecurity.

She linked Boko Haram is to poor water management.

The climate change has exacerbated the economic turmoil in the region. Agriculture and hunting were hardly hit.

The climate change has driven the people around Lake Chad to migrate to other regions, where they find water and food, ushering in conflicts between migrants and residents.

Wrong reactions

Wrong reactions of some governments, especially Nigeria and Cameroon, have led to a feeling of social injustice, fostering the operations of Boko Haram in north Nigeria.

The climate change has upped poverty rate by 71% and malnutrition by 50%. Unemployment in Nigeria rose above 60%.

False hope

Takfiri groups use 'false hope' tactic to exploit the economically and socially devastated communities. The takfiris try to persuade the youth that an Islamic state would bring about prosperity and justice.

That boosts recruitment of young people by takfiri groups.

Complicated impacts

As Boko Haram benefited from climate change, the terrorist organization also worsened the negative impacts of climate change. The dominance of Boko Haram in the Lake region has prevented governmental and international efforts to combat climate change.

The terrorist organization poisoned wells and brooks. We may conclude that climate change has contributed to conflicts in Africa as it worsened malnutrition in West Africa. Moreover, the takfiri groups portrayed the conflict for resources as jihad.