ISIS brings Afghanistan closer to civil war as Iran watches anxiously

ISIS is stepping up its attacks in Afghanistan, targeting the capital, Kabul, which is the center of government control. This coincides with the end of the US military presence after a long struggle with the Taliban, which controls most of the country, and heralds an internal conflict that may intensify during the next stage, threatening a civil war.

The increasing ISIS attacks in Afghanistan represent the organization’s desire to take advantage of the security vacuum that will be created by the military withdrawals of the US and NATO forces amid the weak capabilities of the security forces of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s government, in addition to the competition of al-Qaeda in its main geographical stronghold and winning over armed elements in the region with lengthy combat experience.

This situation will pose a challenge to the Taliban, which wants to obtain full power of the country after the removal of the government in Kabul, which was abandoned by the administration of former US President Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden will complete the withdrawal without reaching an internal agreement that defines the map for the future, and this will create a complex scene of internal conflicts among militant groups, and between them and Ghani’s government, as well as sectarian struggles.

ISIS attacks against Afghan infrastructure

ISIS is fighting an economic war in Afghanistan to incapacitate the country and cause the greatest possible damage by targeting electricity transmission stations and poles in Kabul and the northern province of Kunduz.

Attacks against electricity transformers lead to an economic drain that affects the country's dilapidated budget and impedes the completion of the various tasks of the authorities. For its part, the main Afghan electricity company said that targeting power stations in the north of the country is causing electricity cuts in 11 provinces, including the capital.

Attacks against Shiites, igniting sectarian strife

The attacks against the Shiite community remain among the most prominent targets of ISIS in the areas in which it spreads, igniting sectarian strife in order to recruit more militant elements into its ranks and create a state of turmoil and panic. Will this strategy affect the regional security of the region in the presence of Iran, with its intertwining interests with the Taliban?

The finger of blame was pointed at ISIS for carrying out the recent attack in the Dasht-e Barchi district of Kabul, which is inhabited by Shiites. On May 8, terrorists carried out an attack in front of a school, killing at least 58 people and wounding about 150, most of them girls returning from school at the time of the explosion.

President Ghani has accused the Taliban of carrying out the attack, but the accumulated experience of targeting Shiites in the country indicates the involvement of ISIS in the notorious attack against young students. The Taliban has also denied any responsibility.

The sporadic attacks across the country affect internal stability and citizens' confidence in the authorities, which increases the chances of citizens joining terrorist groups. In the case of Afghanistan, the multiplicity of groups and their differing ideologies seriously threatens security in the country and abroad.

On the one hand, the Taliban will fight ISIS elements to ensure wider control over the country in the midst of a street war that will diminish the government forces' capabilities. On the other hand, Tehran fears of an enemy growing on its borders, which will affect the stability of a region ripe for civil war and the reincarnation of militias.