ISIS in Africa: Nigeria, new capital of the caliphate (Part 1)

ISIS’s path forward in Africa became easy after the killing of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau during fierce battles with ISIS that have been ongoing since 2015, especially with the increase of the terrorist organization’s influence in the African Sahel region with its branch ISIS in the Greater Sahara. ISIS is seeking to compensate for the loss of its influence in Iraq, specifically in Mosul, which it had seized in 2014 and where its so-called Islamist caliphate fell, dreaming of achieving it in another spot, and Africa has become its best option due to the weakness of the societies and regimes in the continent.

The terrorist organization has found its goal in Nigeria, especially after the killing of Shekau, and the path before it became easy. The ISIS branch in West Africa is now the organization’s primary province in terms of strength, level of capabilities and prospects outside the traditional central scope of the organization.

The levels and nature of the quantitative and qualitative operations carried out by its elements within the geographical area of the Lake Chad Basin indicate prior planning aimed at isolating strategic areas in northeastern Nigeria to become a spatial alternative to the organization’s mandates in Iraq and Syria.

Nigeria is of great importance to ISIS due to its wealth and natural resources. It has the tenth largest oil reserves in the world. Therefore, the terrorist organization sought to control the north of the country, taking advantage of the presence of a Muslim majority in this region, in addition to the fact that this region is concerned with oil, which is an important resource for expanding its regional influence into the rest of Nigeria's states and later dominating the south of the country.

As a result of these practices, the number of dead, wounded and displaced persons exceeded the victims of terrorism in North and Central Africa. Nigeria has become, for ISIS, an alternative to Syria and Iraq, threatening Western influence and interests in the region.

To this end, the terrorist organization has been able to take control of vast rural areas, as well as control strategic roads and corridors, in addition to its success in carrying out qualitative operations against military bases. It was able to set up ambushes to kidnap military, civilians, and relief organization employees, and the kidnappings of girls and school students lost the Nigerian state and its institutions prestige and weakened confidence of many Nigerians in them.

ISIS fabricated a legitimate excuse for its incursion into Nigerian territory by declaring that Nigeria would be a purely Islamic state and forcing Christians, who make up about half of its population or 80 million people, to leave the country or convert to Islam.

The terrorist organization wants to use Nigeria as a base for launching operations and expanding its territory, opening new fronts to fight in the Gulf of Guinea and Central Africa, as well as unifying its fronts in Congo, Somalia, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with the aim of expanding into neighboring countries, especially South Africa. For that reason it is trying to win the sympathy of civilians in northern Nigeria in an attempt to attract them by saying that it came to establish a caliphate where all Muslims are safe. It also took advantage of poverty and ignorance to recruit young people and anyone who can bear arms.

ISIS succeeded in dispersing the Nigerian forces by diversifying its military tactics. Sometimes it attacks civilians, storms villages and kidnaps hostages, and other times it attacks military bases and army ambushes. This has led to the dispersal of the efforts of the army and security forces, who are confused between attempts to rescue civilians and protect their members on the one hand, and securing their positions and ambushes on the other hand.

The terrorist organization is trying via Nigeria to take revenge on the coalition forces by reducing their influence and disrupting their interests in response to its expulsion from its areas of influence in Syria and Iraq. To that end, ISIS launched an attack on a United Nations relief center in the city of Dikwa in northeastern Nigeria and besieged a shelter in which 25 took refuge, as part of a wave of attacks inspired by its old method, based on emptying the targeted areas of the local and international security and military presence in order to tighten its control.