Who will take control of Afghanistan: Taliban or government forces?

There are different views regarding the map of control over Afghanistan. Some see that dominance is still in favor of the government forces, given that the urban areas are still under their control, especially the capital, Kabul. However, the evidence on the ground confirms the Taliban’s control over the rural, desert and mountainous areas, which also confirms that the movement has not yet penetrated into the cities, and there are no ancient forms of hegemony over the areas that fell under its control militarily.

Taliban domination

The Afghan peace negotiations, which began in Doha nearly two years ago, did not stand in the way of the Taliban intensifying attacks on Afghan government security centers, and little by little, the movement reduced its attacks against foreign forces in the country with the signs of the withdrawal of US forces, which US President Joe Biden announced the start of its implementation in accordance with the outcomes of the Doha Agreement in mid-April 2021, causing the Taliban to turn entirely to attacking local forces.

The movement is intensifying its combat operations in rural areas, districts and main roads, as well as border posts. According to the Long War Journal, the areas under Taliban control include 223 districts, compared to 116 in favor of government forces, in addition to 68 disputed areas. The movement also announced in early July that it had taken control of 85% of the country.

These numbers raise a state of confusion in the Afghan scene, which ostensibly shows that the Taliban is now controlling most of Afghan territory, while indicating the movement's return to rule over the country in the near future. However, there are field reports from the Afghan government - despite its recognition of the losses - that classify the areas captured by the movement as mostly located in rural areas or areas with mountainous and desert terrain, but that they did not penetrate into major cities such as Kabul.

Helmand and Kandahar

Although the Taliban announces daily large victories over the Afghan forces and taking control of large areas in the country, the main cities are still under the control of government forces, and the movement’s attempts are witnessing fierce resistance from them, which prevents it from entering the urban cities of great strategic importance.

Official Afghan government data indicate that it was able to eliminate hundreds of Taliban members in fierce battles, especially in central urban areas. On July 31, the Afghan Ministry of Defense issued a statement on Twitter in which it said that government forces killed 131 Taliban elements in operations in the provinces of Ghazni, Paktika, Kandahar, Zabul, Herat, Jowzjan, Takhar and Kapisa. The ministry also announced on May 2 that 180 Taliban fighters were killed in Ghazni, Balkh, Kandahar and Helmand.

Kabul

The capital, Kabul, is still under the control of government forces, and the movement has not been able to enter it; however, violent clashes are taking place between Taliban elements and the Afghan forces in the surrounding areas.

Kandahar airport chief Massoud Pashtun said that “three missiles were fired at the airport, two of them hit the runway, and as a result all flights to and from the airport were cancelled.”

This was confirmed by Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, who confirmed that the movement's fighters hit Kandahar airport in southern Afghanistan with at least three missiles during the night, adding that the aim was to thwart air strikes by Afghan government forces.

Mujahid justified the targeting of the airport, according to Reuters, saying, “We targeted Kandahar airport because the enemy uses it as a center to launch air strikes on us.”

The targeting of the airport in Kabul is a qualitative shift for the movement towards controlling the capital, which indicates that the return of the Taliban to rule over Afghanistan is only a matter of time in light of the withdrawal of international forces from the country and the weak performance of the government forces, whose back is bare in the face of the movement’s successive strikes.