Taking a step back: Brotherhood's tactic will not endure in Tunisia

Contrary to the escalating line adopted by Ennahda following the decisions of Tunisian President Kais Saied that were issued on Monday, July 26, in which he sought to dismiss the government and freeze parliament, the Brotherhood-affiliated movement quickly resorted to the strategy of “taking a step back” as an attempt to avoid further losses.

The movement realized that freezing parliament is not the biggest loss, as Saied is motivated by files and information about Ennahda corruption, as long as he waves it in his speeches, and he wants to go to the stage of dissolving parliament and then eliminating any presence of Ennahda in power. But at this stage he only has the freezing step, as stipulated in Article 80 of the Tunisian constitution.

The movement seeks to absorb the crises of the stage and not escalate in order to cut off the path for the president, who is paving the scene in this period to find a legal justification that permits the dissolution of parliament.

Legal position for dissolution

Ennahda has a long list of accusations against its performance amounting to legal violations, the severity of which calls for the removal of Ennahda from the scene.

These accusations range from involvement in corruption cases, obtaining foreign funds, and involvement in the assassinations of Tunisian politicians Chokri Belaid and Mohamed Brahmi, whose defenders accuse the movement of being behind their killing.

Because of the seriousness of the repercussions of moving these files and Tunisia’s need for real political will on the part of the ruling authority in order to expose and get rid of the Brotherhood movement, Ennahda has maintained its position on the scene, and these accusations remain just accusations that need to be proven.

In light of this scene, Ennahda has remained reassured by not proving its condemnation of these files, as whenever a siege is imposed on it, it resorts to the negotiation mechanism to put its opponents back on track.

Today, however, the scene has changed, as the Tunisian president, who has an academic background, came to threaten Ennahda’s fate, so the group found itself besieged in light of what Saied is preparing regarding proof of its involvement in financing and terrorism cases that would not only dissolve parliament, but the movement itself.

Shortest path to dissolution

Chapter 163 of the Tunisian constitution is the closest gateway that President Saied may use to dissolve the Tunisian parliament, the majority of which is controlled by Ennahda.

This chapter stipulates the loss of parliament membership for each candidate proven to have obtained foreign funding in his electoral campaign, as well as a prison sentence of no less than five years.

In this way, the removal of Ennahda members from parliament or the complete dissolution of the latter becomes possible, according to a constitutional provision, if the president is able to prove that Ennahda used foreign funding in its electoral campaigns.

According to what many of his speeches, Saied has evidence of Ennahda's involvement in the issue of foreign funding and has threatened it with accountability.

Will Ennahda remain calm?

Regarding Ennahda’s “taking a step back” strategy, most readings confirm that the movement will not be able to maintain this strategy for long, especially as Saied is on his way to dissolving parliament and holding Ennahda accountable.

This is confirmed in light of the relations that Ennahda established with terrorists from ISIS and al-Qaeda in Tunisia, which makes it likely that the movement will resort to violence by meansofterrorists.

This option is also reinforced in light of the strength of the Salafist situation in Tunisia and despite the clear disagreement between Ennahda and the Salafist movement and the latter’s bid against the Brotherhood movement in its level of religiosity and policy. But Tunisian Salafism does not compromise in supporting the Brotherhood if it finds an imminent danger, as it realizes that the same danger will befall it in the long run.