As the Taliban set their sights on Kabul, some fear a collapse within weeks

Afghans woke to a frighteningly uncertain future on Saturday, a day after three major cities were confirmed to have fallen to the Taliban, fanning already intense alarm that Afghanistan was teetering toward collapse and autocracy amid an intensifying humanitarian crisis.

The Taliban seized Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand Province, on Friday morning, just hours after capturing Herat, a cultural hub in the west, and Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second-largest city.  They have toppled city after city with stunning velocity this week, leaving just three major urban centers, including Kabul, the capital, in the government’s hands.

As the insurgents turn their sights on Kabul, a harsh reality has become clear: the two-decade American-led effort to turn Afghanistan’s military into an effective fighting force has been an abject failure. The security forces are imploding even though the United States spent more than $83 billion on weapons, equipment and training for them over the past 20 years.

Hungry, ammunition-depleted soldiers and police units have crumbled across the country. Demoralized soldiers and policemen have expressed abiding resentment of the Afghan leadership, chief among them the embattled president, Ashraf Ghani, who is stubbornly clinging to office, more isolated than ever.

The insurgency’s human toll is reverberating across Afghanistan, with the Taliban’s brutal military campaign spurring a mass exodus. Many Afghans fear a return to extremist rule. When the Taliban ruled the country from 1996 to 2001, they barred women and girls from taking most jobs or going to school. Another disturbing prospect is a civil war reminiscent of the 1990s, with heavy fighting between ethnically aligned militias.

At least a quarter of a million Afghans have been forced to flee their homes since the end of May, 80 percent of them women and children, the U.N. refugee agency said on Friday. The conflict is also exacerbating food shortages that were already dire.

“The most vulnerable are paying for what’s happening on the ground,” Shabia Mantoo, a spokeswoman for the agency, told reporters in Geneva on Friday.  More than 400,000 people have been driven from their homes since the start of the year, she added. Some two million children are now in need of nutritional support, the U.N. food program said.

American officials said the Biden administration was bracing for a possible collapse of the Afghan government within the next month, as the Taliban speed toward Kabul, their ultimate prize. The Pentagon said Friday that the insurgents were seeking to isolate the capital, taking over border crossings, highways and lines of revenue as they march through the country.

The administration has been urging the security forces to show “leadership” and the “will” to defend Kabul. But many U.S. officials are increasingly doubtful that the Afghan forces can rally to mount a defense of the city.

The Pentagon is moving 3,000 Marines and soldiers to Afghanistan and another 4,000 troops to the region to evacuate most of the American Embassy and U.S. citizens in Kabul.