New government and moderate rhetoric: Taliban doesn’t hear drums of civil war

Afghanistan is going through a transitional phase in its political life, and with it, speculations abound about the new government to be formed, the nature of its administration, the components of its currents, and whether it will include the full spectrum of the citizenry or be limited to the Taliban, in addition to the role of the future political leadership in preventing the outbreak of a civil war.

All countries experience multilateral struggles to control power in their political transformations, and in the Afghan situation, the Taliban has been preparing itself for years for this moment, which paved the way for the unilateral agreement concluded between the movement and the former US administration led by Donald Trump. But it is unknown whether matters will fully return to the movement, or if some currents will try to jump over the gains of the scene, as in the movement of former Vice President Amrullah Saleh, Ahmad Massoud, the son of Ahmad Shah Massoud, and others who aspire to be in the new government.

New government and ambitions for power

Theories abound about the formation of the political leadership for Afghanistan during the next stage. Regarding the formation of a multi-current government, the US envoy in Afghanistan and the leader of the American team negotiating with the Taliban, Zalmay Khalilzad, stated in early August that the movement wants the lion's share of the new government and seeks political representation equivalent to its control over the land.

Khalilzad's statement reflects a US acquiescence in the fait accompli. However, Washington had previously pressured the former Afghan government, led by former President Ashraf Ghani, to fulfill the Taliban's requirements during internal negotiations and did not leave it the opportunity to be a strong opponent against the movement.

With regard to the alliance of former Vice President Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Massoud to confront the Taliban, it is most likely seeking political gain and trying to profit from any privileges in the new authority, but it is offset by international reservations. Russia pointed out, through its ambassador in Kabul, that Saleh does not enjoy overwhelming popularity in the country, which is a prelude to not accepting this trend regionally, and it is also an illustration of important relations that the Taliban were able to build regionally.

Chances of civil war

Raging conflicts in countries facilitate their slide into civil wars, and therefore the rapid control of the situation in Afghanistan may contribute to undermining the chances of a civil war in the region as a result of the favorable conditions for unrest.

According to the International Terrorism Index for the year 2020, issued by the Institute of Economics and Peace in Sydney, Australia, Afghanistan is at the forefront of countries that lost citizens as a result of terrorist attacks, in a clear indication of the extent of internal conflicts.

Taliban media discourse

Taliban leaders have adopted a disciplined media discourse to pave the way for their international acceptance as the ruling political movement in Afghanistan. In this regard, the movement drew attention to its readiness for a government composed of all currents, which is a real test of the movement’s seriousness, as in whether it will actually accept a consensual government or will control all its seats, leaving a few for those who were previously agreed upon through the discussions that took place in the political office in Doha, Qatar.

The Taliban’s orientation towards appointing a governor for the capital, Kabul, indicates its deep efforts to impose its control over the security of the capital and to emphasize its control over matters. The movement chose Abdul Rahman Mansour, one of the brothers of its leaders responsible for the security wings, as acting governor fore Kabul.