New incursion, old relations: Signs of Russian Wagner Group’s spread in Mali

The Russian expansion in Mali through elements of the Wagner Group has raised the concerns of the international community, such that the European Union has decided to impose harsh sanctions on the private Russian military company, which portends further Western escalation against Russian expansion in the African continent.

Deployment in Bamako

The authorities in Mali decided in December 2021 to use more than a thousand elements from the Russian Wagner Group to deploy in the capital, Bamako, for $10 million per month. This was followed by repeated air operations of military transport planes belonging to the Russian army, as well as movements inside Bamako Airport to inaugurate facilities that accommodate a large number of Wagner elements at the base adjacent to Bamako Airport, which is called Base 101. French reports monitored several visits by Wagner cadres to the Malian capital, which raised the concerns of European countries, who threatened the possibility of withdrawing all the company’s forces from Mali, as well as stopping support for them.

Wagner mercenaries

European forces in Mali spotted a Russian Air Force Tu-154 plane flying in Malian airspace coming from Benghazi, Libya, while other reports indicated that Bamako Airport received about 500 Wagner mercenaries on December 23, 2021.

In this context, EU foreign ministers in Brussels unanimously approved on December 13 a resolution that included imposing sanctions on the Wagner Group, while Washington expressed concern about the prospects of Russia’s steps regarding the deployment of Wagner mercenaries in Mali, where US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned the Malian authorities of serious economic and security consequences if Wagner's mercenaries were allowed to be in Bamako.

The increase of the Russian presence in Mali through two private military companies, Wagner and Sewa Security, which is close to the Russian Ministry of Defense and is active in Central Africa, confirms beyond any doubt that Russia has gradually begun to pull the rug from under the feet of the Western countries present in Bamako. The presence of Russian military companies there represents an important step in the framework of Moscow’s efforts to strengthen its influence in the African Sahel and Sahara region, and reinforces the estimates that indicated the presence of Russian efforts to inaugurate a military base for it in Bamako. Russia also decided to sell four combat helicopters to Mali after a visit by Malian Defense Minister Sadio Camara to Moscow.

Old relationship

It is noteworthy that Bamako had a strong relationship with the former Soviet Union following its independence in the 1960s. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin held the Russian-African summit in 2019, there was a Russian decision to renew the search for relations in Africa, and from here the Wagner Group sent its fighters to Libya and Central Africa, despite Western condemnation of such steps. Since French military officials announced their desire to withdraw from the Sahel region in December 2020, it was expected that Wagner would arrive in Mali to repeat the scenario of the Central African Republic. After the end of France’s Operation Sangaris in Central Africa in 2016, Russia quickly filled the void by sending about 1,000 Wagner personnel.

According to the Africa Report, Wagner trained the presidential guard and army forces and protected dignitaries in the Central African Republic, where it also participated in security operations against the rebels, while Moscow sent heavy weapons to the capital, Bangui, in exchange for benefiting from mining rights in several mines in the country.

Russian incursion

Wagner’s spread in the countries surrounding the Sahel region paves the way for its incursion into the region from Mali, and estimates indicate the presence of Russian military company mercenaries in 10 African countries. The degree of engagement varies from one country to another, with the highest levels of penetration recorded in Madagascar, Central Africa and Sudan, while the lowest was in Libya, South Africa, Zimbabwe and South Sudan, followed by Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia.

It is noteworthy that the Wagner Group works according to contracts it concludes with state regimes to train local armies, protect VIPs, and fight insurgents and those that governments classify as terrorist organizations, as well as protect gold, diamond and uranium mines in hot spots.

The Russian-Western conflict in Mali may threaten internal stability there, and may turn into a proxy war between the transitional authorities and some armed militias in Bamako.