Tokayev trims Nazarbayev’s claws: Kazakhstan's turmoil threatens security of Central Asia
Since the beginning of January, the
Republic of Kazakhstan has witnessed massive demonstrations accompanied by
widespread violence, which initially started from the cities of Zhanaozen and
Aktau with protests against the rise in gas prices to twice the previous price.
But the protests developed and took a dangerous curve, becoming attractive to
political opponents of the regime in the capital, Nur-Sultan, which was
established three decades ago and continues to this day in the person of
current President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, an extension of the era of former
President Nursultan Nazarbayev (1990-2019).
Nazarbayev disappeared into the
shadows, but he did not come out of power completely. Rather, he kept holding
in his hand the National Security Council, which appears to be the most
important and most dangerous authority in the country. Therefore, the protests
gathered citizens who were angry at the authority, and the protests went beyond
the issue of raising prices to questioning the legitimacy of the regime in
itself.
Demonstrations subsequently spread
to other regions of the country, including Alma-Ata, the largest city in
Kazakhstan and the former capital, while widespread bloody armed clashes
erupted, killing dozens of people and wounding thousands, including among the
protesters and security forces.
Foreign impact
Externally, these developments
threaten to spread the contagion of revolutions and protests to the neighboring
Central Asian countries, which Moscow fears and does not allow in any of the
areas that were formerly affiliated with the Soviet Union, where it still
maintains influence.
In light of these developments,
Tokayev announced the dismissal of the government and the dismissal of
Nazarbayev, taking on the chairmanship of the National Security Council
himself, as well as the imposition of a state of emergency throughout the
country and an official invitation to the Collective Security Treaty
Organization led by Russia to send peacekeeping forces to the country. Indeed,
numbers of Russian troops have reached the Kazakh lands, while opposition
leaders have declared that they consider these forces to be an occupying army
invading their country.
Kazakhstan's protests are a concern
across Russia's southern border, because it maintains the Baikonur Cosmodrome
there, through which Russian space missions are launched, and a large Russian
minority, representing 20 percent of the population, lives in Kazakhstan.
At these times, Moscow is busy
escalating tensions with Washington and the European Union by inflaming the
situation in Ukraine, where huge forces are massing on its border, so the
protests in its southern neighbor are an unwelcome distraction.