Back to square one: Libya’s future after strained relations between parliament and government

Libya is in the wake of a political crisis in which the country is experiencing tense relations between its constitutional institutions. The severity of the dispute between the parliament and the government has reached a degree of extreme tension and complexity in conjunction with the ambiguity that dominates the entire political scene by postponing the holding of elections and implementing the road map agreed upon by the Libyan people indefinitely. The scenario of chaos is once again very close and the explosion is imminent, especially with the continued flow of armed militias to Tripoli.

The statements made by Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh on January 17, in which he declared that the Government of National Unity (GNU) headed by Abdul Hamid al-Dabaiba no longer has legitimacy and demanded that a new government be formed to lead the transitional phase until elections are held, confirm beyond any doubt the escalation of the current tensions between the House of Representatives and the Libyan government, which the terrorist Brotherhood will not allow at the present time unless it finds an appropriate alternative after the departure of Dabaiba.

In response, the spokesman for the Dabaiba government, Mohamed Hamouda, announced that Saleh’s statements do not express an official position of the Libyan parliament, but are rather just his personal opinion, noting that there are a large number of MPs who disagree with him. He noted that there is another trend within the House of Representatives that sees the need for the GNU to continue in order to avoid additional conflicts, and this was evident in the initiatives launched by a number of presidential candidates demanding the continuation of the GNU as a caretaker government.

International concern

The United Nations also expressed its concern about the recent developments, as Stephanie Williams, Advisor to the Secretary-General of the United Nations, announced that the road map developed by the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum extends until June, which means that the current government must continue to carry out its duties until the end of this period, stressing that the overthrow of the government will not solve the Libyan crisis. UK Ambassador to Libya Caroline Hurndall agreed with Williams.

Saleh rejected all international attempts for the Dabaiba government to continue and complete the agreed-upon road map, and he took escalatory measures, forming a committee headed by Nasr al-Din Muhanna to prepare the road map in coordination with the High National Election Commission.

It is certain that the committee is in the process of postponing the elections for several months until the settlement of the contentious files and obstacles that prevented the holding of the elections on December 24, 2021, in addition to announcing the formation of a new government, with 13 conditions agreed upon by representatives, the most prominent of which is that candidates submit a written pledge not to run in the upcoming elections after the controversy caused by Dabaiba’s candidacy for the presidential elections, which faltered in December.

Back to square one

This comes despite Prime Minister Dabaiba’s refusal to hand over his duties except to an authority elected by the people, which threatens to bring the country back to square one, as the differences are similar to what happened in 2014, when the country was divided between two governments in the east and west, which left negative effects on the political, economic and security levels, the repercussions of which continue to this day.

Dabaiba also called for the formation of a committee of 30 members of intellectuals, thinkers and jurists from the three Libyan regions to draft a new constitution for the country within 30 days from the date of forming the committee.

In response, the head of the Libyan Constituent Assembly for the Drafting of the Constitution, Al-Jilani Arhouma, announced his rejection of Saleh’s announcement regarding the formation of a new committee to draft the constitution, noting that this matter would create a new constitutional crisis.

Expected scenarios

The previous data confirm that Libya is on the verge of three scenarios, the first of which is the scenario of chaos and renewed fighting if each party adheres to its position and the parliament insists on changing the government. The goal of forming a mini-government would only prolong the crisis but not solve the problem, as it would be difficult for consensus to be achieved in a situation that is fundamentally torn between all forces and currents.

The second scenario is Saleh’s compliance with UN pressure, maintaining the Dabaiba government and focusing on an early date for elections, a maximum of six months, where the international community will intervene and force the political entities to make concessions and agree to Dabaiba’s survival in order to protect the country from falling into the quagmire of chaos.

The third and final scenario depends in its implementation on the extent of the coordination process between the Libyan entities, as the European Union Special Representative for the African Sahel Emanuela del Re said that there is a scenario soon for Libya to move towards a new government, which could be headed by Fathi Bashagha or anyone else, although agreement must be reached first in order for the transition to be smooth.