Future of African conflicts in 2022

A large sector of African countries suffer from instability and the fragility of the security situation, as they are exposed to multiple and varied security threats. Extremist groups are still following the ISIS terrorist slogan that they are “remaining and expanding” in many countries in the region.

The civil war that has continued since November 2020 in Ethiopia has displaced two million people, contributed to massive human rights violations, and threatens to start famine in the Tigray region.

The Gulf of Guinea is a hotbed for piracy in the world, and drug trafficking is a constant source of concern in West, Central and East Africa, as well as the experience of cybercrime, which is now a more serious security problem than ever before for law enforcement in Africa, which is helped by building naval bases, selling surveillance technology and drones, and sending mercenaries to conflict areas.

Chaos in Ethiopia

The chaos that struck Ethiopia recently is expected to increase and move the country towards the brink of the abyss scenario, threatening the state and the integrity of the countries in the region. It is unlikely that mediation efforts by the African Union or others will achieve any progress, and the United States will resort to imposing sanctions on those believed to be prolonging the crisis, as the seriousness of the situation in Ethiopia threatens neighboring countries with the transmission of violence and chaos.

The humanitarian and security crisis engulfing West, North and Central Africa is expected to continue, with increased ethnic violence and political and societal conflicts, and include security hotspots, civil wars in Libya and Somalia, anglophone crises in two western regions of Cameroon, and conflict based on natural resources in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The Central African Republic has also entered the cycle of violent conflict several years ago, and developments indicate that it is still stuck in an intractable cycle of violence. The political dialogue desired by the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region has been hampered by the political will of the parties to the conflict, in addition to the fragility of the state. This means that a new approach to sustainable peace is urgently needed.

It is expected that South Sudan will turn into another epicenter of conflict to watch as it enters the final year of implementing the revitalized 2018 agreement on conflict resolution, which must be done to end the political transition within the allotted time and end long years of suffering for the people of South Sudan.

Conflict in the African Sahel and other parts of the continent may exacerbate issues surrounding water and food security, unemployment, poverty, organized crime, repression, and internally displaced persons.

Hotspot of the war against terrorism

Africa has become a new hotspot for the war against terrorism since 2017, when ISIS lost its caliphate in Syria and Iraq. Although violent extremism is not new on the continent, violence linked to ISIS and al-Qaeda escalated significantly in recent years.

Fragile states struggle against terrorist factions in vast insecure spaces where central governments have only limited powers. The regions of the African Sahel have witnessed escalating bloody events, mostly due to the battles in which terrorist groups participated, which extended from northern to central Mali, then to Niger, passing through the countryside of Burkina Faso to reach the coasts of West Africa.

Newest front

Northern Mozambique and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo represent the latest violent jihadist front and are also worrisome, as extremists demanding the establishment of a new ISIS province in the Cabo Delgado region of Mozambique have stepped up their attacks on security forces and civilians.

It is estimated that nearly a million people have fled the fighting, and the militants have loose ties to ISIS networks that stretch along the eastern coast of the continent and in the civil war-torn eastern Congo.

Another rebel group, the Allied Democratic Forces, a Ugandan militia long operating in Congo, has pledged allegiance to ISIS and already launched attacks in the Ugandan capital Kampala last November.

The Mozambican government, which had long resisted outside interference in Cabo Delgado, finally agreed to allow Rwandan troops and units from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to fight the terrorist groups. Indeed, those forces have turned the scales in favor of the government forces, although the militants appear to be regrouping, which means that the Rwandan forces and SADC may be embroiled in a protracted war.

In Somalia and the Sahel, the withdrawal of Western forces could be decisive. Foreign forces, the European Union-funded AMISOM mission in Somalia, and French and other European forces in the Sahel help contain terrorist groups; however, military operations often alienate the local population and further erode relations between them and the state authorities. The Afghan scenario could also be repeated, where the terrorist Al-Shabaab movement in Somalia seizes power in Mogadishu, as the Taliban did in Kabul.