Kazakhstan holds its breath and waits for reform after protests

In 2010, as he approached twenty years in power, Nursultan Nazarbayev, the leader of Kazakhstan, urged his country’s scientists to develop an “elixir of life”. It was the third occasion in just over a year that the central Asian dictator had called on researchers to invent a way to stave off death. They did not succeed.

More than a decade on, in the aftermath of massive protests that swept Kazakhstan last month, Nazarbayev, now 81 and increasingly frail, is having to come to terms with not only his own mortality but also the end of his iron grip on Kazakhstan, a vast oil-rich former Soviet state located between China and Russia.

Although Nazarbayev stepped down as president in 2019, he continued to call the shots from behind the scenes. He handpicked Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a career diplomat, as his successor and retained the official title of “Elbasy”, or “Leader of the nation”, as well as chairmanship of the powerful security council.

He was also the head of the ruling Nur-Otan party, had a veto over domestic and foreign policy, and it was a criminal offence to insult his “honour and dignity”. If that wasn’t enough, the capital, Astana, a futuristic city that was built almost from scratch out of the Kazakh steppe, was renamed Nur-Sultan in his honour.

Demonstrations that erupted in early January in Zhanaozen, a hardscrabble oil town in western Kazakhstan, over a steep rise in gas prices swiftly transformed into nationwide protests against the country’s authoritarian regime. In Almaty, Kazakhstan’s biggest city, protesters chanted “Shal, ket!” which translates as “Old man, leave!”

In Taldykorgan, a nearby town, a statue of Nazarbayev was toppled by protesters who attached a noose around its neck and “hanged” it in front of the mayor’s office. A list of demands presented by demonstrators in central Almaty called for democratic reforms, including an end to Nazarbayev’s powers. The regime responded with a deadly crackdown.

As the protests swelled, President Tokayev, 68, alleged that Almaty was under siege by 20,000 “terrorists” and issued a “shoot-to-kill” order. He also invited Russian troops into the country to help with an anti-terrorist operation. More than 200 people were killed, including unarmed civilians who are said to have been shot dead by security forces. The Kazakh government has yet to provide evidence to back up its claim that Almaty was attacked by foreign-trained militants.

The regime may have survived the protests but the unrest signalled the end of Nazarbayev’s role as Kazakhstan’s supreme leader. As gunfire echoed through the streets of Almaty, Tokayev stripped Nazarbayev of his post as head of the security council and appointed himself as his replacement. In addition, Karim Massimov, the Kazakh intelligence chief and one of Nazarbayev’s key allies, was also fired and charged with treason amid rumours of in-fighting among the elite.

Nothing was heard of Nazarbayev until almost two weeks after the end of the protests, when he appeared in a short video. Speaking from an unknown location, Nazarbayev insisted that he was still in the country and denied rumours of a power struggle with Tokayev. Describing himself as “pensioner”, he said he was taking a “deserved rest” in the capital, which he pointedly avoided referring to as Nur-Sultan.

The video, which was largely viewed as a resignation speech, came shortly before Tokayev ousted Nazarbayev’s three sons-in-law from leading roles at the chamber of commerce, as well as at KazTransOil, the state oil pipeline firm, and QazaqGaz, the Kazakh natural gas pipeline operator.

Most significantly, Tokayev also took over as head of the ruling party, while Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter, Dariga, who was once tipped as a future president, was removed from its political council. She remains an MP, but has been on “sick leave” since the protests. Nazarbayev is also set to lose the right to have the final say on government policy, after the move was supported last week by MPs.

“This is surely the watershed for Kazakhstan, when it really starts moving into the post-Nazarbayev era — though what that will be like is anyone’s guess,” said Joanna Lillis, the British author of Dark Shadows, a book about recent Kazakh history.

There are more symbolic signs, too, that the epoch of Nazarbayev has come to an end. The statue of the Kazakh leader that was toppled during the protests has yet to be to replaced or repaired, and there are no indications that it ever will be. On Almaty’s Nazarbayev Avenue, a street sign that was pulled down by angry protesters lies forgotten on a street corner.

 “Nazarbayev knows what the people really think about him now,” said Aset Abishev, a former political prisoner.

In the aftermath of the protests, Tokayev has also criticised Kazakhstan’s gross economic inequality, admitting last month that just 162 people owned more than half of the country’s wealth. He vowed that the country’s richest individuals and companies would be forced to donate to a fund that would be used to tackle poverty and promised to announce a package of political reforms in September. Yet critics say that while Nazarbayev may have been stripped of many of his powers, there is little hope of meaningful change.

 “Nazarbayev and his family could not remain in power, otherwise it will not be possible to stabilise the situation after the protests,” said Dimash Alzhanov, a political analyst. “But the nature of the regime has not changed.”

Opposition figures also say that neighbouring Russia is unlikely to welcome genuine reform in Kazakhstan over concerns that this would inspire supporters of democratic change in Moscow. While Kazakhstan has been happy to do business with western oil companies such as BP and Shell, it has strong ties with President Putin’s regime. Those links are now likely to grow further after Tokayev called in Russian troops to help quash last month’s protests.

“Even if Tokayev wants to start democratic changes, Putin does not want to have models of democracy for Russians in central Asia,” said Zhanbolat Mamay, an opposition figure. “I do not think Russia will allow him to begin any real reforms.”

Britain has also been accused of hindering Kazakhstan’s development by doing too little to prevent the flow of “dirty money” into the London property market. Nazarbayev and his extended family, described as “grossly kleptocratic” by William Courtney, a former US ambassador to Kazakhstan, are estimated to own at least £530 million of luxury real estate in the UK, according to a recent report by the Chatham House think tank. These properties include 221b Baker Street, the residence in London that served as Sherlock Holmes’s fictional home, and Sunninghill, a Berkshire mansion that was purchased from Prince Andrew in 2007 for £15 million.

“We have opened our borders, our property market and our financial structures to the Kazakh ruling class, enabling them to launder their illicit wealth and spend it,” Margaret Hodge, the Labour MP, said in parliament last week, as calls grew for the government to impose sanctions on Nazarbayev and his family. “The recent violence demonstrates the true cost of kleptocracy”

Calm has returned to the streets of Almaty since last month’s protests, but there is a sense that the country is holding its collective breath to see if Tokayev can or will deliver on his promises. The stakes are high, warned Alzhanov, the analyst. “Without serious reforms, sooner or later, society will explode again.”