“New al-Qaeda", developments and peculiarities

The organizational map of extremist movements and groups, as well as militias, in the region has gone through a state of dynamism, accompanied, on one hand, by fluidity in their structure, and the pattern of potential alliances among them on the other.

This prompts monitoring, and analyzing mobility on the map, focusing on al-Qaeda, which has been experiencing a sort of “organizational awakening” through 2018, amid severe decline in the capabilities of the Islamic State (IS/Daesh) in Syria and Iraq in 2017.

Daesh regression has directly impacted the capacities of its branches in countries of the region.

This has forced Deash to conduct a restructuring process, emerging anew on certain arenas of the Arab region, either in the form of new groups - such as “, Ansar al-Islam” in Egypt, or “Tanzim Ḥurras ad-Din”  (Guardians of Religion Organization) in Syria – or reviving, or rather restructuring old ones, such as  Jund al-Islam (JAI)  in Egypt.

The process could be analyzed in Egypt and Syria as follows:

First: al-Qaeda in the Levant “Tanzim Ḥurras ad-Din ”

On February 27, 2018, a new al-Qaeda affiliate terrorist group declared itself under “Tanzim Ḥurras ad-Din” (Guardians of Religion Organization) in Syria. The group separated itself from Jabhat Al-Nusra (Al-Nusra Front) which is now known as “Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (Organization for the Liberation of the Levant).

Adopted by al-Qaeda, the new group soon engaged itself in hard work hard to lure, and recruit volunteers for al-Qaeda, from other dispersed militant organizations.

Tanzim Ḥurras ad-Din has been the first “frank” al-Qaeda face in Syria over the past three years, after Jabhat Al-Nusra announced “disengagement” from al-Qaeda in July 2016, and turned into Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (Front for the Conquest of the Levant). Relations between both entities continued until Jabhat Fateh al-Sham changed name to Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham in January 2017.

Ḥurras ad-Din, the new al-Qaeda version then, issued a call to Muslims, Syrians, in particular, to take up arms. The call came in a publication promoted by al-Qaeda channels on Telegram, under “Hamza Ibn Abdul-Muttalib Camp”, focusing on the militants’ losses in Syria. It stressed that  “ the battle has just commenced.”

The a video featured many people in military uniform, engaged in hard training, amid enthusiastic songs. It emphasized the Tanzim’s major conditions for those willing to take up arms, namely “faith and physical preparation.” 

On April 17, 2018, a host of pro al-Qaeda media channels launched a call for unifying the efforts by six Syrian factions loyal to al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahri, to make up for the “demise” of Daesh, and to attract the former militants of the group .

This was not the first initiative urging terrorists to get united, but one in a series, showing “breathing last”, and one that would soon prove a failure, just like previous calls.

The six al-Qeda affiliates were Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Tanzim Ḥurras ad-Din, Ansar al-Islam, Ansar al-Tawhid, Ajnad al-Kavkaz (Soldiers of the Caucasus) and the The Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria (TIP).

As negotiations came to a halt between Tanzim Ḥurras ad-Din and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, the former began playing a pivotal role to function as the start-up for "new al-Qaeda" in the Levant. It managed to include groups like Osoud Al-Tawhid (Lions of Tawhid), Ansar Al-Haqq and Abnaa Al-Sharia, as well as many of defectors from the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham.

Secondly: Al-Qaeda in Egypt

Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist groups have been active through Egypt in 2018, and their organizational map has varied to include Ansar al-Islam and Jund al-Islam, the first is very active in the Western Desert and the other in parts of North Sinai.

1-    Ansar al-Islam:

In October 2017, Egypt's Western Desert was the scene of clashes between security forces and extremists. The Ministry of the Interior then said that 16 security personnel were killed and 13 wounded in the incident of "Wahat Road attack, km 135".

The security forces were on a mission in the region when they were attacked by terrorists. A little-known new group then, called Ansar al-Islam claimed responsibility for the Oct. 21, 2017 attack.

In a statement, the group mourned terrorist Emad Abdul-Hamid, a leader of al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Mourabitoun (the Sentinels), and the closest aide to the group's top leader, Hisham Al-Ashmawi, recently captured by the Libyan military forces in the eastern port city of Darnah on October 8, 2018.

Al-Ashamwi was a fired military officer and former training chief of Ansar Bait al-Maqdis. He declared organizational disengagement from Ansar Bait al-Maqdis after pledging allegiance to Daesh Leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi in 2014, and he changed the name to " Wilayat Sinaa" in December 2014.

In order to reiterate organizational allegiance to al-Qaeda and its leader Ayman Al-Zawahri, Al-Ashmawi, and other terrorist elements, among them Bahaa Ali and Abdul-Hamid, established a new group under Al-Mourabitoun, Darnah, Libya, almost 200 kilometers from the Egyptian western borders. This showed the link between Ansra al-Islam and Al-Mourabitoun. It was also believed that the two groups of Al-Mourabitoun and Junud Al Khalifa, merged in one Ansar Al-Islam.

2- Jund al-Islam

It is an al-Qaeda affiliate that emerged in North Sinai in 2012, and launched a host of terrorist attacks, one of which targeted a military intelligence facility in Rafah, 2013, killing and wounding several military personnel. In 2015, the group issued a video showing its elements during tough training. It launched an audio message on November 17, 2017, threatening Wilayat Sinai in the wake of the Ar-Raudhah Mosque deadly attack, in Bir al-Abd, North Sinai. A visual one followed on January 25, 2018, with a detailed testimony by a defector from Daesh, who said that his former group was behind the Ar-Raudhah massacre.

Jund al-Islam was absent from the media scene for a while, and on September 10, 2018, issued a new video attacking the state of Egypt and urging Muslim youth around the globe to join un the "Jihad for the Sake Allah".

Jund al-Islam is among the terrorist groups that are expected to play a major terrorist role in the post-Daesh era, particularly with the weakening, or maybe collapse of Ansar Bait al-Maqdis (Wilayat Sinaa).

Thirdly: Potentials characteristics and peculiarities of "New al-Qaeda":

1-    Broader decentralization:

The strategy of the "New al-Qaeda: is expected to be dominated by more decentralization regarding the organization's branches in the region, allowing the emergence of new al-Qaeda groups.

2- Think like al-Qaeda, act like Daesh:

Elements forming the various al-Qaeda groups in countries of the region, have been in close contact with the course of events in Syria, and many of them once belonged to Daesh.

Therefore, one finds himself before an organizational restructuring affected by al-Qaeda ideology, and dominated by the Deash style of fighting, namely using excessive force in confrontations.

     3-Tactics of confrontation and priorities of fighting:

The targeting strategy will be altered to consider a far enemy just like a close one.

-         Facing Khawarij and ultra-extremist groups that promote  hyperbole in fighting and takfir (declaring other Muslims as non-believers (kufar).

- Refraining from holding the entire society "kufar", which was a dominant trend of Daesh over the past years.

In general, 2018 is viewed as a turning point for extremists and militias in the region, especially on the Syrian arena, the stronghold of the most-organized and most influential two groups, al-Qaeda and Daesh. The collapse of Daesh, mainly in its two major strongholds, Mosul in Iraq an Raqqa in Syria, has affected its branches in the region, and in the meantime, has given al-Qaeda an impetus for restructuring, to attract the IS former fighters as well as militants from other extremist organziations. This has made of 2018 the "year of al-Qaeda rise," a matter that will broadly impact the map of the terrorist groups in the region in 2019.