Superior tactics frustrate Russia but Ukraine’s supply line may be vulnerabl

It is difficult to form an objective view of the war. The regular briefings the Ministry of Defence and the Pentagon are giving are presumably based on the vast intelligence apparatus at their disposal. But both nations support Ukraine, and they are understandably tight-lipped in their assessment of Ukrainian forces and their tactics.

Meanwhile, both Moscow and Kyiv are engaged in the “battle of the narrative”. Observing the war from outside, then, is akin to watching the latest blockbuster film through a drinking straw. Nevertheless, it is possible for military experts to sift out a general sense of how the war’s character is changing.

Changing dynamics

Ukrainian forces have put up an unexpectedly resolute and effective defence. Ukrainian troops still hold the northern city of Kharkiv and the capital, Kyiv. Russian advances have been hampered by poor tactics, leadership and logistics, with forward units running out of ammunition, fuel, food and water. Russia has not achieved air superiority — a key factor for success. And the Ukrainian military’s ability to command and control its forces appears intact.

At this stage both sides are seeking to inflict punishment and pain on each other, striving to frustrate the opponent’s strategies and convert military success into leverage in the peace talks.

The statement by Moscow’s general staff that efforts would focus on securing those parts of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk not already controlled by pro-Moscow rebels was evidence that Russia has adjusted its campaign. We can expect it to devote ammunition and fuel on forces attacking the Ukrainian brigades defending Donbas. It is likely that strikes by artillery and long-range missiles will intensify in this region.

Over the past five years in Donbas, the Ukrainian army has fortified its defensive positions, including extensive trench systems and armoured vehicles in fortified revetments. Successfully attacking this zone will require heavy firepower from artillery and armoured vehicles as well as tough aggressive infantry all led by competent tactical commanders. Success would depend on Russian officers showing greater leadership and tactics than they have displayed in northern Ukraine.

Russian forces have had more success in the south. This may reflect better logistics, drawing on a fuel and ammunition stockpile in Crimea, or use of more competent military formations. The terrain is far less wooded, making it more suitable for armoured forces.

These Russian southern forces may attack northwards to threaten Ukrainian forces in Donbas with encirclement. Should the siege of Mariupol succeed, the besieging forces could be reassigned to attacking northwards. And Russian troops are also attacking towards Donbas from the north around the town of Izium. Should these threats materialise, they could force a hard choice on the Ukrainian general staff: to stand and fight, at the risk of being encircled, or to attempt to withdraw to the west. A withdrawal would be difficult.

Russia also said it would reduce the intensity of its attacks around Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kharkiv, with their forces adopting more of a defensive crouch. But the Russian army will probably still mount attacks in these areas, using the guns and rocket-launchers that it retains to weaken counterattacks. Such strikes may make it more difficult for Ukraine to redeploy forces to Donbas.

We can expect that in areas where the Russian offensive has run out of steam, the Ukrainian army will continue to mount local counterattacks to push back the enemy, maintain their offensive edge and reduce Russian morale. These are likely to continue to be limited, as Ukraine will need to husband its troops and equipment for Donbas.

The other wars

There is an international campaign to prevent a Russian victory: diplomacy, information, intelligence, economic sanctions and supply of military material.

The US and UK appear to be playing a leading role in an informal coalition supplying Kyiv with weapons and ammunition. This depends on successful transfer, presumably on the western border. Reports also point to Ukrainian aircraft collecting supplies throughout Europe. Russia is attempting to detect and disrupt this effort, probably using a combination of signals intelligence, reconnaissance satellites, long-range drones, special forces, agents and informers. These factors probably drove recent missile attacks on barracks, ammunition bunkers and fuel installations in eastern Ukraine.

Air superiority is often considered to be essential for a military campaign to succeed. That the Ukrainian air force fighters and missile defences have denied air superiority to Russia is a remarkable achievement that points to a higher level of leadership, confidence and tactical skill.

There is evidence of the Russian air force increasing the number of its radar surveillance aircraft deployed. Should the Ukrainian air force be overwhelmed, Russian fighters, bombers and attack helicopters would be able to operate much more freely. A proportion would be directed to support the Russian effort over Donbas. But Russia would also be able to deploy more surveillance, reconnaissance and strike aircraft in the west. This would increase its ability to identify how supplies enter Ukraine and flow to the front line and then attack supply convoys and storage areas.

The gaining of air superiority by Russia could shift the balance on the battlefield, both directly and by weakening Ukraine’s logistics, especially its stocks of advanced western weapons such as the US Javelin and British NLAW missiles.

Asset and vulnerability

Kyiv’s military strategy is of defence — including using diplomacy and a modern information campaign. In this, President Zelensky is Ukraine’s single greatest asset. He has combined Churchillian rhetoric and exploitation of social media with video addresses to national legislatures that have often been expertly targeted at the political dynamics of those nations.

Russia is unlikely to attempt to shut all the video links out of Kyiv. It needs at least one channel to conduct peace negotiations. But no one should think that Russia would pass over an opportunity to kill Zelensky. Such a loss could be a serious blow to Ukraine’s diplomacy and morale.

So far Ukraine has frustrated all Russia’s strategic aims but commentators who predict a Ukrainian victory may be over-optimistic. The vulnerable supply lines are essential to Ukraine’s ability to prevail on land.

At the height of the Battle of Waterloo, the Duke of Wellington reportedly said: “Hard pounding this, gentlemen, but we will see who can pound the longest.”