Battle for drone supremacy in struggle for control of Donbas region
The Russian army has stepped up its use of reconnaissance to direct artillery fire in eastern Ukraine as defence experts warned the next phase of the war could hinge on which side has more unmanned aerial vehicles.
The Ukrainian defence ministry said that Orlan-10 drones were being used to scout out defensive positions as the battle ramps up over the flat steppe of the Donbas.
The Orlan-10 has an estimated cost of £75,000 and is equipped with infrared cameras that can spot targets. It transmits video in real time to Russian gunners over a cellular network.
Despite its three-metre wingspan, the Orlan-10 flies at relatively low altitudes, making it vulnerable to attack — Ukrainian forces claimed to have shot down four over the Donbas yesterday.
On the Ukrainian side, defence experts believe that the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones, which proved so deadly during the initial phase of the war, are unlikely to prove as effective at destroying Russian tanks in the Donbas.
Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow in air power at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), said that Ukrainian forces would use Bayraktars sparingly because they were more vulnerable to better Russian air defences in eastern Ukraine.
He said that a key factor in the next phase of the war was whether Russia could continue the supply of Orlan-10s at a faster rate than they were being shot down.
“If you have a cheap commercially available drone like a quadcopter or a multicopter with a camera feed, then your otherwise fairly imprecise artillery or mortar fire can be quickly corrected on to a target within two or three rounds,” he said. “It’s a very cheap way of massively increasing the effectiveness of indirect fire.”
He added: “The Ukrainians have been shooting down quite a lot of the Orlan-10s. One of the important factors that will play out in the fighting in this phase of the war will be whether the Russians have enough UAVs to continue to do artillery spotting and situational awareness for columns as they advance.”
The US is donating a hundred “kamikaze” Switchblade drones to Kyiv and has trained a number of Ukrainian soldiers in how to use the loitering munitions.
The Switchblade has a range of 25 miles and can be used to destroy armoured vehicles and tanks. The drone is produced by AeroVironment, a US defence company.
Yesterday AeroVironment announced that it would donate another 100 Quantix reconnaissance drones to Ukraine, an acknowledgement of the importance of accurately directing artillery fire during the next phase of the war.
The company said: “This donation will provide operators with a tool that can fly undetected by enemy forces and unaffected by radio frequency jammers to deliver accurate and rapid reconnaissance of remote, inaccessible areas.”
