Russian forces could regenerate to win in Ukraine, warns British army chief
Russia will most likely emerge from the war in Ukraine as an “even greater threat” to European security, the new head of the army has said.
General Sir Patrick Sanders, who has been in post less than two weeks, said Russia’s resilience meant it could suffer the loss of any number of campaigns, battles and engagements but then “regenerate and still ultimately prevail”.
He said that given President Putin’s ambition to restore the lands of “historic Russia”, any respite would be “temporary and the threat would become even more acute” after Russia replenishes its capabilities after defeats in Ukraine.
Analysts believe Russia is learning from its mistakes, enabling it to make slow but steady progress in the eastern Donbas region. Speaking as leaders gathered in Madrid for the Nato summit, Sanders said that Russian wars often started badly. “History has also shown us that armies that have tasted defeat learn more quickly,” he said in his first public speech as chief of the general staff, at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London.
He added: “We don’t yet know how the war in Ukraine will end but in most scenarios, Russia will be an even greater threat to European security after Ukraine than it was before.”
His comments put him at odds with ministers and officials who have downplayed Russia’s military capability because of the manpower and equipment it has lost since February 24.
In Germany yesterday on the final day of the G7 summit, Boris Johnson said he did not believe there would be a wider war in Europe. “I don’t think it will come to that,” he said. “Clearly we are working very hard to confine this to Ukraine. Putin and the Kremlin are going to try to widen the conflict and say that this is something to do between Nato and Russia — that is not it at all. This is about an invasion of an independent sovereign country. It is about the West and the friends of Ukraine giving them the support they need.”
However, Sanders, 56, said soldiers and officers of all ranks must be prepared to “fight and win” to prevent the spread of war in Europe as he warned he had never seen such a clear threat to peace and democracy as the “brutal aggression” of Putin. He said “this is our 1937 moment” and that the British Army “must act rapidly” to ensure the UK is not drawn into a war because it failed to stop Russian expansion.
The army has launched Operation Mobilise to prevent war with Russia, which Sanders said would involve the “ruthless prioritisation” of tasks and resources. He pledged to remove “barnacles that slow us down” so decisions could be with less bureaucracy. Speaking alongside Wallace, who announced troop cuts last year but has since called for more defence spending, Sanders said it would be “perverse” if he were to advocate reducing the size of the army “as a land war rages in Europe and Putin’s territorial ambitions extend into the rest of the decade, and beyond Ukraine”.
Nato allies are in Madrid discussing an overhaul of the alliance’s defences in its eastern flank. Jens Stoltenberg, Nato secretary general, has said 300,000 troops will be committed to Nato’s high readiness force aimed at preventing war with Russia. Under plans being thrashed out by allies over the next few days, the force will be more deployable, with equipment stationed in vulnerable states and increased training.
“Deterring Russia means more of the army ready more of the time, and ready for high-intensity war in Europe,” Sanders said. He also warned of “diminished stockpiles” as a result of the UK giving away kit to Ukraine. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said last week that allies would be unable to sustain a long term “offensive” war because they did not have enough ammunition.
