Hijab protests leave revolution hanging in the air over Tehran

For weeks the world has looked on as the women of Iran pour on to the streets to protest against their government, some cutting their hair and burning their hijabs.

The extraordinary displays of defiance have unveiled the depth of anger among Iranians, raising questions about the future and durability of the Islamic Republic. Could the country be on the brink of a revolution? Such things are notoriously hard to predict.

No one saw the Iranian Revolution coming in 1979, for instance, or the Arab Spring uprisings, despite, arguably and in retrospect, all indicators being present. It is therefore hard to argue with absolute certainty if, when, and how a revolution could happen in Iran and whether the present unrest could lead to one. However, at this point, there is little sign that the wave of protests, however significant, could lead to an imminent collapse of the regime.

The protests were triggered by the killing of Mahsa Amini, 22, an Iranian Kurd, who died while in the custody of the state’s morality police, after being arrested for wearing her mandatory headscarf too loosely. They quickly gathered momentum, evolving into a series of wider anti-government demonstrations, with people from 80 cities, across all social and ethnic backgrounds, joining in. The slogan of the protests is: “Woman, Life, Freedom.”

The Iranian establishment, caught by surprise, quickly deployed riot police and security forces to crack down, leading to hundreds of arrests and many deaths. The exact number cannot be verified because of internet restrictions, but it is believed to be at least 70.

President Raisi has acknowledged that the Islamic Republic has “weaknesses and shortcomings” but has given no indication that something will be done to address the grievances and rage of the population. The vans of the morality police that roamed the streets of Tehran have disappeared, but whether their presence will be permanently withdrawn remains to be seen.

The supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, broke his silence more than two weeks after the demonstrations started, only to accuse Iran’s foreign enemies — the US and Israel in particular — of engineering the “riots and this insecurity” to destabilise the country and halt its progress.

The regime, therefore, seems unwilling to listen to protesters’ demands and instead pursues its playbook of repression and containment, from blocking the internet and social media to arresting artists and famous figures standing by the protesters. In doing so it uses all the tools at its disposal to ensure its survival and relies on the Revolutionary Guard to protect the system.

These methods have not been sufficient to stop the protests, leading some to hope that a collapse of the regime is in sight, yet they lack the leadership and organisation to create a real challenge.

With demonstrations being scattered and ad hoc there is no cohesive social movement which could destabilise the regime, particularly in light of the ability of the Revolutionary Guards to repress dissent. The protests could, of course, become more structured but, based on similar uprisings in the recent past in Iran, the demands and grievances raised by those protesting are not shared among the population at large.

While a large section of Iranian society is frustrated with the status quo and wants some sort of change, not everyone wants an upheaval of the system. The prospects of uncertainty, violence and lack of stability are not appealing to a population which has seen the unpredictable outcome of a revolution “only” 43 years ago in its own country, and more recently through the Arab Spring.

There is still a part of the population that largely supports not only the continuity of the system, but also the principles on which the Islamic Republic is based. This includes the people who voted for Raisi in the last elections in June 2021. Turnout was low, at only 48 per cent, and choice was very limited in terms of presidential candidates, with all four of them belonging to the centrist and hardliner factions. Yet 62 per cent of those participating voted for Raisi who, during his first year in power, has significantly increased the enforcement of mandatory dress code rules for women.

Rather than the possibility that the Islamic Republic could imminently fall, what the protests expose is the level of fragmentation within society. Over the past few years, particularly since 2017, protests have been taking place every year, on issues ranging from the price of oil, and the shooting down of a passenger jet by Iranian anti-aircraft missiles over Tehran in 2020, to the failure to provide services and the state of the economy.

With women and girls now at the forefront of protests, another layer of dissatisfied citizens is added to those pushing for change. This trend is only likely to continue and even intensify, with other issues emerging as potential triggers for protests and other factions of the society joining those unhappy with the status quo.

The sharper the divisions within Iranian society, the weaker the state-society relations and the higher the erosion of the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy. In the long term, this spells serious repercussions for the regime’s stability and, ultimately, its survival.