Catastrophic Flooding in Nigeria Uproots Millions and Severs Gas Production

Flooding across Nigeria has hobbled gas production and decimated thousands of square kilometers of farmland, the country’s government said Wednesday, aggravating fuel and food shortages across Africa’s most populous nation and potentially affecting gas exports to Europe as it braces for energy shortages this winter.

Several weeks of flooding have hit 33 of Nigeria’s 36 states, uprooted more than two million people from their homes and killed more than 600 people. More than 200,000 homes have been destroyed or damaged, making the floods the worst to hit Nigeria since 2012 and one of the worst for decades, according to the country’s humanitarian affairs ministry. Some 3,400 square kilometers of farmlands—roughly the size of Rhode Island—are completely submerged.

The flooding has cut off gas supplies to Nigeria LNG Ltd., the country’s largest gas producer, forcing it to declare force majeure on Monday, raising further fears over global supplies as governments in Europe struggle to replace Russian exports amid the raging conflict in Ukraine. 

Nigeria, which is the largest gas exporter in sub-Saharan Africa with the biggest proven reserves, exported 23 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas to Europe last year. It is planning to build a new gas pipeline to Europe through Morocco to boost exports. Nigeria LNG exports mainly to Portugal’s oil-and-gas company Galp Energia, which said the flooding may result in additional supply disruptions.

Thousands of search-and-rescue workers have been deployed to assist affected communities.

Aid officials have said the extreme flooding is the result of climate change, and they have drawn comparisons with the floods in Pakistan that killed 1,300 and displaced 32 million people in September. 

“This news is alarming,“ said Matthias Schmale, the United Nations’ humanitarian coordinator for Nigeria. “Climate change is real, as we are yet again discovering in Nigeria.”

Rising temperatures are causing more evaporation, particularly across the Southern Hemisphere, making floods more common, he added.

Of particular concern, the floods have decimated crops across northern Nigeria, where farmers cultivate corn, sorghum and yams, which feed the majority of the country’s 200 million people. It is raising fears of further disruption to food supplies that have already been hit by the conflicts in the country’s northeast and central regions. According to the U.N.’s World Food Program, flooding blamed on climate change has affected more than five million people across 19 countries, in a region that is already grappling with an unprecedented hunger crisis.

“These floods act as a misery multiplier and are the final straw for communities already struggling to keep their heads above water,” said Chris Nikoi, the WFP’s regional director for Western Africa.

Economists say the impact of the floods could worsen Nigeria’s ailing economy. The country is battling double-digit inflation, which hit a new 17-year high of 21% in September, driven by a failing local currency and steep food prices.

The rising floodwaters have halted natural-gas production and cut supplies to the LNG plant on Bonny Island. The plant was already facing operational challenges, ranging from oil theft to reduced feedstock, Nigeria LNG officials said.

The World Bank has warned that Nigeria could struggle to service its $103 billion public debt this year. Oil exports remained below 1 million barrels a day for the second month in a row in September, the lowest levels in more than 40 years amid rising oil thefts, according to data from the International Energy Agency.

In his final budget speech as president earlier this month, President Muhammadu Buhari said the widening budget deficit meant the government could no longer afford to keep financing fuel subsidies, which are expected to cost more than $9 billion this year. Analysts believe that the flooding will worsen economic woes for Nigeria, which relies on fossil fuel exports for around 90% of it is foreign revenue earnings.

“With oil production remaining low, Nigeria has missed a golden opportunity to translate high oil prices into record profits,” said Pieter Scribante, an analyst with Oxford Economics Africa.

The floods come after extreme rainfall last month overwhelmed the Lagdo Dam in neighboring Cameroon, forcing operators to open overflow spillways and release more water into the Benue River, which runs across northeastern Nigeria.

Aid agencies have started delivering tents, medical supplies and food to flood victims, but humanitarian officials have warned that more lives could be lost from disease outbreaks as flooding spreads across the country.

“Women and children are most vulnerable and worst affected,” said Abu Jibril, head of the charity WaterAid in Nigeria. “With climate change upon us, many people in Nigeria are already living on the front line of the crisis—and it is likely to get worse.”

Nigeria’s National Emergency Management Agency on Tuesday warned that people living along the Niger and Benue rivers could face more floods in the coming weeks as rains intensify. While some parts of Nigeria’s coast are prone to floods, this year’s flooding has been intense across the country and in other African countries, including Gambia and Chad.