Implications of new military agreement between Turkey and Dabaiba government
A few days ago, the outgoing Prime Minister of the Libyan Government of National Unity (GNU), Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, concluded two military agreements with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, which reflects Ankara's desire to enhance its military and economic influence and presence in western Libya, especially since the military agreements were preceded by memoranda of understanding allowing Turkish companies to explore for oil and gas on Libyan soil.
The new military agreements aim to enhance the capabilities of the warplanes of the forces of western Libya by benefiting from Turkish experiences in this field, including Ankara’s provision of modern aviation training to the Dabaiba government forces, Turkish support for the drone unit recently established by Dabaiba, obtaining more Turkish Bayraktar-type drones, and the implementation of the agreements signed by the Government of National Accord (GNA) with Turkey in 2019, which allow the formation of a defense committee between the two countries, in addition to a military cooperation committee, as well as a protocol for providing training, advice and information by Ankara to the forces of western Libya, not to mention providing military support to these forces with advanced equipment and devices.
The recent agreements between Turkey and Dabaiba reflect Ankara's desire to support the latter by uniting the forces of western Libya behind Dabaiba, which leads to perpetuating the political division between eastern and western Libya.
Consolidation of power
Dabaiba’s moves reflect his efforts to consolidate his authority in the Libyan scene to prevent any attempt to expel him, which opens the door to forming a new consensus government alternative to the governments of Dabaiba and Fathi Bashagha. Dabaiba signed two military cooperation agreements with Ankara as part of his efforts to enhance the capabilities of his forces and their readiness to repel any future attacks.
The current Turkish moves also reflect Ankara's efforts to consolidate its long-term influence in western Libya, especially after the memoranda of understanding signed with the Dabaiba government in early October, according to which Ankara will begin to explore for Libyan oil and gas.
Ankara also aims to exploit Dabaiba’s efforts to stay in power to obtain more gains by strengthening its influence in Libya and formulating a new reality in the eastern Mediterranean, in addition to confronting the possible decline in its influence, especially after regional powers opened up to the main actors in western Libya, which constituted an inconvience for Ankara and represented a threat to its interests there.
The current Turkish movements in western Libya also cannot be separated from the current escalation between Turkey and Greece in the Aegean Sea, as Ankara considers that Athens’ movements in Greek Cyprus constitute a threat to its interests in the eastern Mediterranean and an attempt to limit Turkish influence. Turkey therefore seeks to confront the Greek moves by strengthening its presence in western Libya, as well as threatening to drill in the territorial waters of Libya in accordance with the maritime border delimitation agreement signed by Ankara with the GNA in 2019.
Threat to the forces active in the Libyan file
The recent Turkish moves represent a threat to the forces active in the Libyan file, especially those supporting the eastern Libyan region, which is prompting them to halt oil and gas production and exports again in order to push international forces to pressure Ankara to stop its penetration into western Libya.
These moves portend the possibility of inflaming the scene again, and the best evidence of this is the military exercises that Dabaiba supervised for his military groups in western Libya a few days after the military parade organized by the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. The LNA’s Artillery and Missile Department organized a review of the R-17 Elbrus ballistic missile systems and raised the efficiency of the long-range missile system, in an important indication of the escalation of internal tension, which threatens to erupt the situation in Libya.
