Why Putin can count on Africa for now

The unconvincing United Nations Assembly vote this year to condemn President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine confirmed a view long held by experts: that a new scramble for Africa was under way.

Twenty-two African nations refused to censure Russia over the war. Months later a similar group would not condemn its annexation of four Ukrainian regions.

Russia may be on the back foot militarily in Ukraine and increasingly friendless on the world stage, but it can count on plenty of support in Africa, long the playground of great powers. Over the past decade, from the Central African Republic (CAR) to Sudan, African leaders have come to prize Russia’s merciless brand of hard power.

On Friday President Zelensky said that Kyiv would boost its own footprint in Africa next year by opening ten embassies. It came on the heels of the US-Africa leaders’ summit, where President Biden attempted to convert African heads of state with lucrative business deals. However, analysts say that the battle may already be lost, with thuggish Russian mercenaries scattered across the continent and anticolonial sentiment on the rise.

Among those that abstained at the UN were South Africa, with whom Russia enjoys strong trade and security ties, Uganda, which has hidden behind political neutrality, and the war-torn CAR, where mercenaries with Russia’s slippery Wagner Group cruise around in balaclavas imposing order. The same mercenaries are on the front line in Ukraine.

Rising Russian influence underscores shifting relationships on the world’s fastest-growing continent. In recent years the US and the former colonial powers of Britain and France have lost ground to China, Russia and smaller players such as Turkey and the Gulf states. Africa is filled with Chinese infrastructure and addicted to Chinese loans. Moscow flexes its muscles differently, by disseminating misinformation, plundering resources and propping up unpopular autocrats.

In CAR Wagner operatives have dispatched rebel groups and brought a sense of order, even though UN investigators accuse them of “excessive force, indiscriminate killings, occupation of schools and looting on a large scale”. All they required in return were licences to export vast quantities of diamonds, gold and timber. “They threaten stability, they undermine good governance, they rob countries of mineral wealth, they violate human rights,” Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, said of Wagner this month.

Nevertheless, many African countries view Ukraine as a western puppet. Russia’s colonial adventures did not extend to Africa, and the Kremlin-backed liberation struggles during the Cold War included South Africa’s anti-apartheid movement. “On our side it’s like replacing a colonial power with another colonial power, but Russia used the argument of sovereignty, saying that their presence finally gives local governments the freedom to choose their allies and fight their wars without any limitations,” Enrica Picco, Central African director at the think tank Crisis Group, said. That, alongside a torrent of social media propaganda, has convinced the general public in West African and Central African countries, she said.

Other nations balk at being asked to take sides on the war in Ukraine while protracted conflicts quietly claim lives in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, the terror-plagued Sahel and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC); or they resent what they see as lecturing by the West on human rights. Picco summarises the African perspective: “It is not an African war so African countries should be able to protect their interests, regardless of the parties.”

Prior to Russia’s invasion, Ukraine was one of the world’s largest arms exporters, with plenty of its aircraft, tanks and ammunition heading to sub-Saharan Africa. Ukrainian troops have even participated in combat missions in Africa, including in the DRC. However, experts say that Ukraine cannot compete with Russia on the continent. “Ukraine has not prioritised Africa — its diplomats in New York have been slow to appreciate that the continent represented 54 votes. The treatment of African students in Ukraine [who were turned back at Europe’s borders] immediately after the Russian invasion also played badly on the continent,” Alex Vines, Africa programme director at Chatham House, the international affairs think tank, said.

Kyiv has attempted to win over African countries with a humanitarian grain initiative, after Russia blockaded Black Sea ports that would have taken Ukrainian wheat to East Africa. Without vital shipments and amid the worst drought in 40 years, millions of people are going hungry. “Each Russian rocket is not only hitting Ukrainians, it also harms the quality of life for Africans,” the Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said on a recent trip to Africa. “I urge Africa not to stay neutral,” he added. “Neutrality will only encourage Russia to continue its aggression and malign activities across the world, including in Africa.”

To the West’s chagrin, however, many African countries still do not blame Russia for rocketing food and fuel prices. In Burkina Faso, CAR and Mali many blame France and its energy companies. When Burkina Faso experienced its second coup in months this year, protesters hoisted a Russian flag outside the French embassy. Last year, after chasing out the French, Mali hired Wagner to help it fight Islamist militants.

Experts surmise that there are up to 5,000 Russian mercenaries active in about a dozen African countries. If Moscow manages to get its hands on a warm water port in Sudan, its foothold would extend across the Sahara.

Diplomats hope that Wagner deployments in Ukraine and a weakened Russia under western sanctions will start to turn the tide. “Even Eritrea, which in the first UNGA [United Nations General Assembly] vote supported Russia, has since abstained. Very few African states openly support Russia currently,” said Vines. Last week Morocco reportedly became the first African country to supply arms to Ukraine.

However, even if public support for Russia wanes, its authority will not. “The operations that Wagner mercenaries are undertaking in many African countries are not really costly. They just need to supply a few hundred mercenaries with basic military equipment. They are paid back with resources from the state,” said Picco. “Keeping those operations running means keeping a high profile on the continent and maintaining the rhetoric that Wagner mercenaries are successful.”