Upcoming Tunisian parliament: Speculation of more crisis, economy has upper hand

None of the data indicates that the second round of the Tunisian legislative elections, expected on January 29, will result in any stability. Although Tunisia will, according to these elections, obtain an elected parliament after parliamentary life was frozen for a year and a half by the decisions of Tunisian President Kais Saied on July 25, 2021, most speculation says that the new parliament will not create the required stability, but rather will itself be a crisis in light of criticism directed at it even before its formation.

President who does not back down and a floundering opposition

These speculations do not mean that President Saied will make any change that will mitigate the criticism directed at the path he has adopted since July 25, 2021. Since the “extraordinary” decisions, the president has not backed down from any step he took, adhering to his rhetoric attacking what he calls “corruption”.

In exchange for the president standing at a certain point and refusing to back down from it, criticisms of the president and his path escalate, as one time a national dialogue is called for and another time early presidential elections. Despite the instability of the opposition on a unified demand, in addition to not coming from divergent ideological backgrounds, its position remains influential on the general political scene.

In light of the president's adherence to his path and the inability of the opposition to transcend its political convictions, it seems that the Tunisian scene has reached a stalemate in which dialogue between the parties becomes difficult.

Economics has the upper hand

Meanwhile, Tunisia is going from bad to worse in its economic crisis, which has affected the living conditions of citizens, and the government intervenes from time to time with vital sectors in the state that threaten to go on strike, such as the bread sector and the transport sector.

It is impossible to deny the negative impact of the economic crisis on the political level, as the president, who enjoyed high popular confidence in the wake of his exceptional decisions, is gradually losing his grip on the scene, while the opposition is increasing with the pain of the citizen, demonstrating the failure Saied.

Where is the way out?

Despite the stalemate that is expected to continue for quite some time, the breakthrough in the Tunisian scene depends on two things. Either there will be economic improvement, albeit difficult, or the parliament will succeed in winning the people's confidence, which does not seem difficult, despite all the criticism and skepticism practiced by the opposition against the parliament, but it has been proven in the Arab world that the opposition always has a weak effect on the people, who always question the intentions of politicians.