China-U.S. Relations: A High-Altitude Spy Balloon and a Postponed Trip"

China-U.S. relations are at their worst point in decades, with numerous issues including microchips, human rights, tariffs, and Taiwan causing tension between the two nations. However, recent signals of openness from Beijing to thawing ties with the West have been noted by observers. The discovery of a "high altitude surveillance balloon" floating above Montana by the Pentagon was a crucial event that occurred just as the Secretary of State Antony Blinken was preparing to make the first trip to China by a Secretary of State in over four years. The visit was postponed by the Biden administration, and it could potentially make bilateral relations between Washington and Beijing even worse.

China's Foreign Ministry confirmed that the balloon was theirs, calling it a "civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological purposes," that had gone off course and expressed "regret" for the incident. Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank, believes that the incident itself will not improve bilateral relations, but if the Chinese prioritize engagement and improvement of ties, it would provide more incentive for them to deliver.

hite House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that national security officials have "communicated directly with the Chinese government about this at several levels." Blinken spoke with China's top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, and said he "would be prepared to visit Beijing as soon as conditions allow." If the visit can be rescheduled, it could work in Blinken's favor and set the stage for a better meeting than they might have had.

In about a month, China will hold its annual session of parliament, taking Chinese officials out of the mix until mid-March. There are also growing rumors that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will pay a visit to Taiwan in the spring, causing further tension. If Blinken cannot get to Beijing before McCarthy visits Taiwan, Yun Sun says the trip may not happen at all, as relations will likely sink back into a deep freeze. Even if Blinken can reschedule his trip, the hill to climb to restore a semblance of stability in China-U.S. relations is steep.

Beijing wants more stable external relations as it tries to revive the economy and adjust to life after three years of strict COVID-19 control policies. However, it can only go so far, according to Joshua Eisenman, an expert on Chinese foreign relations at the University of Notre Dame. He believes that the best thing the two nations could seek to achieve is a modus vivendi in a post-COVID zero world for dealing with difficult issues.

In conclusion, China-U.S. relations are strained, but recent signals of openness from Beijing have been noted. The discovery of a "high altitude surveillance balloon" floating above Montana and the postponement of the Secretary of State's trip to China could potentially make bilateral relations worse. However, if the visit can be rescheduled, it could work in Blinken's favor. The coming months will be crucial, with campaigns heating up for presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States in 2024, and China is sure to be a key issue.