Turkey Faces Massive Cost of Rebuilding Shattered Towns and Cities After Earthquake

Last week's earthquake in Turkey has left a vast area in ruins, with over one million buildings requiring restoration and half of the 3.4 million buildings in the affected region potentially needing to be demolished. Estimates for the cost of rebuilding range from $10 billion to $100 billion, with investment bank JPMorgan suggesting that the direct cost from destroyed structures could exceed $25 billion, or 2.5% of Turkey's gross domestic output.

Civil engineers, urban planners, and aid groups are currently surveying the damage in southern Turkey and northern Syria. With over 13 million people thought to be affected in the hardest-hit areas, the death toll has already surpassed 42,000 people. The rebuild will not only require restoring residential properties, schools, hospitals, commercial buildings, airports, mosques, and other places of worship, but also rebuilding historical centers like Antakya, which was hit hard by the earthquake. The city is home to one of Christianity's oldest churches, which officials said was not harmed, but a synagogue was damaged, and a 13th-century mosque was wrecked.

However, one of the most challenging aspects of the reconstruction process will be rebuilding in a way that is safer, especially in historical centers like Antakya. Reconstruction expert Ezgi Orhan believes that officials should conduct a thoughtful and thorough planning process to ensure that cities are properly rebuilt, which will ultimately draw back residents. Sara Shneiderman, a professor at the University of British Columbia who studied how Nepal recovered after its 2015 quake, warns that state-led construction may be quicker but less successful in bringing back people.

Despite the challenges, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has pledged to complete the construction and recovery within a year, ahead of his re-election in May, which analysts predict will be the toughest of his two decades in power. However, reconstruction experts believe that a 12-month timeline is completely unrealistic, and it will be a multiyear process. Tiziana Rossetto, a professor of earthquake engineering at University College London, emphasizes the importance of rebuilding in a way that is safer, not just rebuilding the way they have done in the past.

In summary, the scale of the rebuilding required is massive, and it will take years to rebuild safely, making it the biggest reconstruction effort since Turkey's founding in 1923. It will not only be costly but will require careful planning to rebuild in a way that draws back residents while being safer.