Somalia's President Declares "Total War" on al-Shabaab, Empowering Rural Uprisings to End Chronic Insecurity

Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has declared "total war" on al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda franchise that tried to assassinate him three times during his first term as president. Mohamud claims that they are still trying to kill him and offering a large bounty to anyone who succeeds. Since Mohamud was re-elected in May 2021, he has taken a new approach to tackling al-Shabaab, seeking to tap into the knowledge of local people, in contrast to past administrations.

A crucial aspect of his "total war" strategy has been to support rural uprisings against al-Shabaab by Somali clans fed up with the jihadists' oppressive rule, backing clan militias called the Ma'awisley with ammunition, transport, and medical evacuations. The US has provided drone strikes. This approach, according to some, draws parallels with Iraq's tribal uprisings in 2006-2007, which shook off jihadist rule with US military help.

However, there is concern that Mohamud's empowering of clan militias could lead to future instability if they start fighting among themselves after the jihadists are gone. Mohamud and his advisers reject this idea, saying the militia movement is fully controlled by the national army, but the army itself is plagued by factionalism and corruption. Disputes between its different branches, as well as the police, often turn violent. On Saturday, two units fought at a road crossing in Mogadishu.

So far, the "total war" approach appears to be working, with several major towns and roads back under government control. Mohamud claims that his government will announce the eviction of the jihadists from the central states of Hirshabelle and Galmudug in a couple of weeks. After that, the focus will be on forcing the jihadists from their remaining strongholds in the south.

Another part of Mohamud's "total war" is going after the jihadists' finances. In 2020, researchers estimated that al-Shabaab raised at least £11 million a month, mostly through violent extortion of businessmen and even civil servants. Mohamud's government seeks to counter al-Shabaab's jihadist message, recognising that "once we defeat them militarily, the ideology will remain". To this end, he has appointed a former deputy leader of al-Shabaab – once the subject of a $5 million US bounty – as his religious affairs minister and gathered together a group of 300 clerics who issued a fatwa against the group.

The approach Mohamud is taking signals a break from previous administrations, including his, that failed to tap into the knowledge of local people. He emphasises that his new approach rests on "mobilising the people" and taking the war against al-Shabaab to the lowest level. This approach, Mohamud claims, has left al-Shabaab resembling "a fish run short of water", unable to hide within the population or impose taxes on them.