Experts Sound Alarm as Pressure Mounts on Fragile Russia, Risking Regional Stability

Russian disintegration and its consequences for Europe are being discussed among Western military and diplomatic strategists. While it may seem like a solution for territories such as the Baltics, Poland, and Ukraine that have suffered under Russian repression, the consequences of Russia’s collapse could be far-reaching. While it remains unlikely, the risk of Russia disintegrating as a result of its failed assault on Ukraine is still causing concern, with the possibility of a patchwork of warlord-controlled fiefdoms similar to Afghanistan in the 1990s or Libya in the present day. The implications of this are grave for regional stability, with possible consequences for Europe, including further disruptions to supply chains, clashes between nuclear-armed factions, and new waves of refugees fleeing a destabilized Russia.

The subject is sensitive, and officials refuse to speak publicly about their deliberations or contingency planning for fear of fueling Russian support for the war. Western officials declined to address the subject when asked during the Munich Security Conference last week. While most experts say disintegration is unlikely, focusing on this option is counterproductive, as it makes a strong argument for Putin's narrative that the West is the aggressor.

Russia's travails during World War I helped spark the Russian Revolution and a civil war, while the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s was more peaceful. However, similar agitation from the peripheries today wouldn't be met with a more forceful response. The Russian Federation is a single country with a very powerful central administration, and 80% of the population identifies as Russian. The most important factor preventing bloodshed in 1991 was that Russia didn't object to dismantling the Soviet Union.

Western planners are concerned that if the war in Ukraine ends with the Kremlin's defeat, Russian soldiers will return home and carry on the fight there, helping to fuel the country's disintegration. The men fighting for Russia in Ukraine come from underprivileged Russian territories, including the mountains of eastern Siberia, where much of the population has ethnic and cultural ties to Mongolia, and the North Caucasus, an area of diverse ethnicity that includes Chechnya. It is unlikely that Putin or a potential successor would allow regions such as Bashkortostan in the southern Urals or Siberia to break off without a forceful response.

While disintegration isn't likely, if it were to happen, it would pose grave threats to regional stability with potentially profound consequences for Europe. Therefore, it is important for Western officials to consider their contingency planning while avoiding giving Putin a welcome talking point.