After escalation in Syria: Outcome of the Iranian-American conflict

The US-Iranian conflict on Syrian territory has recently escalated after an exchange of blows between the two sides, as the US Department of Defense announced the killing of 14 pro-Iranian fighters in air strikes carried out by the US army in eastern Syria.

The Iranian response included targeting three US bases in Syria: Al-Omar oil field, Conoco oil field, and Al-Shaddadi. Tehran sent messages that it would not stand idly by in the face of the American and Israeli threat to its military barracks in Syria, at a time when the militias linked to Iran showed their willingness to escalate and clash with the American and international coalition forces.

Reciprocal threats

Within the framework of the ongoing escalation between the two sides, Iranian-linked groups in Syria, in a statement by the Iranian Advisory Committee in Syria, warned the United States of retaliation if its centers and forces were targeted on Syrian territory, stressing that the response and retaliation would not be easy. It noted that the American air strikes left 14 dead and wounded, adding that service centers and food stores were targeted.

In the context of the strongly worded threat from Iran, the Iranian Advisory Committee said, “We warn the American enemy that we have a long-term arm, and we have the ability to respond in the event that our centers and forces are targeted on Syrian soil. Our revenge will not be easy.”

From the American side, the strongly worded statements came that the United States is strongly prepared to protect its people, as US President Joe Biden said that Washington does not seek a conflict with Iran but is ready to act forcefully to protect its people. These statements came after the air strikes carried out by the US military in Syria, which resulted in fighters loyal to Iran being killed.

This escalation came after a drone attack targeted an American facility. According to the US Department of Defense, the attack targeted a maintenance facility at a coalition forces base near Hasaka in northeastern Syria, which resulted in the death of an American contractor and the injury of six other Americans.

Commenting on the incident, the Pentagon confirmed that the US intelligence services consider the drone to be of Iranian origin. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that, under the direction of President Joe Biden, US Central Command forces launched accurate air strikes in eastern Syria against what he described as “facilities used by groups affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.”

Outcome of the conflict

Despite the increasing escalation between the two sides, neither will not go beyond the usual ceiling in the conflict, which is centered on strikes against Iran's arms in the region by Washington, followed by limited Iranian responses to US facilities in the region.

Neither side seeks to be drawn into a direct clash for which they cannot bear the consequences, as Iran suffers from deteriorating economic conditions due to the sanctions, while the American side will also adhere to calculated escalation without getting involved in a new war, in light of the criticism within the United States of the Biden administration’s dealings with many of files.

In light of Iran's interest in consolidating its presence in Syria and betting on its participation in the reconstruction process, it will seek to move its arms to target US interests in the region if Washington continues to pose a threat to Tehran's interests in Syria.

In the event that no progress is achieved in the negotiations of the “stalled” nuclear agreement and in light of the American-Israeli coordination, the coming period may witness a return to shadow wars and the targeting of facilities inside Iran, especially nuclear and military facilities.