Significance of the fighting between ISIS and Al-Shabaab in Somalia

A remarkable development has occurred in the ongoing conflict in Somalia between the terrorist organization ISIS and the Al-Shabaab movement, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda, as fierce battles broke out between the two parties in the Golis Mountains area in Bari Province, northeastern Somalia.

Clashes between the two terrorist wings

According to the New Somalia website, direct confrontations between the two wings of terrorism in Somalia led to the death of 46 terrorists from both sides, before ISIS managed to dominate the site of the clashes and overpower Al-Shabaab militants.

The relationship between ISIS and Al-Shabaab is “confrontational”, according to observers, since the emergence of the first in 2015 at the hands of dissidents from the most prominent movement in the Horn of Africa, and despite the organization's strong start, it was unable to expand, dominate and spread in Somalia and resorted to carrying out specific operations.

The Golis Mountain range, located in northern Somalia, is considered one of the most fortified sites in the country, as it is difficult to penetrate by the security forces, and it is therefore considered a large hideout for terrorist organizations.

Time bomb

Mohamed Ezz El-Din, a researcher of African affairs, said that ISIS does not currently pose any threat to the Somali state, but it will remain a time bomb that may explode in the future.

Ezz El-Din confirmed in a special statement to the Reference that the timing of the confrontation between the two parties is a win for the Somali government, which is working to eliminate the terrorist Al-Shabaab movement. He explained that any other front against the movement is in favor of the military operation.

He added that the superiority of ISIS in some confrontations of this kind that occur in its stronghold is expected, as it follows a policy of defense and has not yet reached the level of attack.

Major challenges facing the two organizations

For his part, Hesham El-Naggar, a researcher in the affairs of extremist groups, said that one of the main challenges facing the two organizations, specifically from their plans of expansion and presence in Africa, is the clash of their interests and their conflict in some arenas, leading to fighting and armed conflict.

Naggar confirmed in a special statement to the Reference that this represents an opportunity for the army and the security apparatus to weaken them together. The fighting and conflict between al-Qaeda and ISIS in Nigeria was exploited, and the apparatus there achieved good results, benefiting from the liquidation of dozens of elements of Boko Haram and ISIS during the fighting between them. It is very likely that the scenario will be replicated in other African arenas, and Somalia is very well prepared for that, given the desire of ISIS to replace al-Qaeda, the state of popular anger, and the alignment of tribes with the government to fight the armed rebel groups.

He added that it is too early to reveal the end and surrender of Al-Shabaab, but the movement is in great trouble, as there is a public and security alert against it, and there are government achievements in this regard.

Naggar pointed out that there is solidarity and regional cooperation between Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, with the exchange of information and intelligence cooperation to prevent the cross-border activity of the Somali Al-Shabaab movement and to undermine its external activities, as it was planning to get out of its internal impasse by expanding in both Kenya and Ethiopia.