Issued by CEMO Center - Paris
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Mutual accusations between the two parties to the conflict in Sudan and fears of a civil war

Tuesday 02/May/2023 - 08:32 PM
The Reference

The battles in Sudan entered their third week with a new breach of the ceasefire by both sides of the conflict, as the sounds of clashes rose in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, on the morning of Monday, May 1, despite the extension of the ceasefire, at a time when the United Nations warned of a “moment of collapse” on the humanitarian level. The Sudanese army said on Monday morning, “The country inherited a heavy burden as a result of the former regime's mistake in forming the Rapid Support Forces, and within 15 days we reduced its combat capabilities by 45-55%,” while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced the classification of the Central Reserve Police (CRP) as a “combatant and hostile force.”


Army gains

In a statement on its official Facebook page, the Sudanese army said, “The country has inherited a heavy burden for the strategic mistake of the defunct regime by forming the Rapid Support Forces. The Sudanese state is now paying a heavy price for sabotaging the country and terrorizing and plundering the citizens.”

“We assure our citizens that it will not give up on achieving its aspirations so that the clock will not turn back, and we will not allow the country to make any distortions in its military structure again except through the gate of the Sudanese armed forces, no matter how high the cost,” the statement added.

Regarding the situation in the field, the army stated that “the enemy mobilized in the capital to carry out the plot until the morning of April 15 with huge forces with great equipment, which amounted to 27,135 fighters, 39,490 recruits, 1,950 combat vehicles, 104 armored personnel carriers, and 171 double-cab box vehicles armed with machine guns.”

The Sudanese army also said that “our forces managed, during 15 fighting days, to reduce its combat capabilities by 45-55% of its combat capabilities, which it mobilized to kidnap the Sudanese state, confiscate its decision and destroy its armed forces.” There was no immediate comment from the RSF about this statement.


Rapid Support Forces

For his part, the second in command of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Abdul Rahim Hamdan Dagalo, told Al-Jazeera that their forces still control their positions in the Republican Palace, radio and television, and the Khartoum airport.

He also added that RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo Hemedti “directs the political and military battle from the field,” and that the forces receive instructions from him, adding that the RSF continue to confront army reinforcements coming from the states.

With regard to the start of the deployment of the Central Reserve Police in locations in Khartoum, Dagalo said that they classify these forces as a “combatant and hostile force.”

He also added that they asked the deputy director of the police forces not to include them in the fighting, but the latter did not respond. Dagalo accused what he described as elements of the isolated regime of being responsible for the looting of banks in Khartoum.


Civil war

Regarding the danger of war and its expansion, videos spread on the pages of many Sudanese citizens asserting that this war is absurd and could lead to the people taking up arms, and here lies the real danger. A Sudanese citizen said in one of the videos, “This is the war of the generals, and the citizen has no interest in it. The officials, headed by the Minister of Finance, are demanding that they show up and return their money to the people so that they can dispose of their daily affairs.”

Political activist Mohamed al-Asbat said, “Although the truce was extended for another three days, the data on the ground says that the truce will not be adhered to, and the most dangerous variable in this war is its movement outside the capital, especially the state of West Darfur in the El Geneina area, which is a very complex ethnic and racial area and a model of the disaster that will result from the transfer of the war to other regions, where it will turn into a civil war in which the fighting will be based on race. This civil war will certainly not stop at the borders of Sudan but will move to its neighboring countries. Sudan shares its borders with seven countries, and all these countries are linked with Sudan by common tribes, half of which are in Sudan and the other half in those countries. Therefore, if the African Union, IFAD, the United Nations and the international community do not rectify this danger and strive with all their efforts to stop the war, things will be more dangerous if the war continues for more than another week.”

Asbat added that, as for the vigils that took place outside Sudan to stop the war, which the Muslim Brotherhood claims to have launched, those who carried them out were Sudanese activists and citizens who have nothing to do with the Brotherhood from near or far, but rather they follow civil political parties inside Sudan and the Sudanese civil society, and they demand an end to the war and bringing those responsible for it to justice and prosecution, and 28 countries around the world witnessed these stances.