Iran's Involvement in the Ukrainian War: Causes and Consequences
However, there are several key reasons that have prompted
the Iranian regime to persist in supporting the Russians, even amidst their
international isolation. One of these reasons is Iran's high confidence
following the notable impact achieved by its drones in targeting important
sites in Ukraine. This impact has garnered significant European attention and
concern about the consequences of Iranian support to Russia in the Ukrainian
war. This attention is likely to encourage Iran to maintain this success
against the Europeans' desires.
The war environment has provided Iran with an opportunity
to test and enhance its weapons, making them more lethal and capable of
inflicting greater damage when targeting infrastructure in Ukraine. For
example, Iran has modified the payloads of its drones to carry larger cargo,
enabling them to penetrate armor upon explosion, thus increasing their ability
to destroy more targets.
Iranian Support for Russia
Iran's support for Russia in its war against Ukraine has
increased significantly after economic and military sanctions were imposed by
Western countries on Russia. Tehran saw aligning itself with Russia at this
time as a means to strengthen its partnership and overcome obstacles,
particularly in the economic and investment sectors. This support would help
Iran compensate for its losses resulting from foreign capital flight and
companies' reluctance to invest due to imposed sanctions.
Additionally, Iran has long sought military cooperation,
and its support for Moscow through drone operations on the outskirts of the
conflict has brought it closer to acquiring modern fighter aircraft.
Iran recognizes Russia's importance in maintaining its
field position in Syria, serving Iranian interests. It realizes that Russia's
defeat in the war in Ukraine, or at least its exhaustion in a prolonged war not
initially planned, will undoubtedly impact its strong presence within Syria.
This exposure would make Iran vulnerable in the face of armed Syrian opposition
in the northwest and southwest, and it may render the task of reconciling with
Turkey impossible. Therefore, Iran is currently seeking to avoid the cost of
Russia's defeat in the war.
Despite the high cost of supporting Moscow, Iran finds no
alternative to relying on Russian support for the nuclear agreement and
Russia's ability to obstruct escalatory decisions regarding Iran in the
Security Council by using its veto power if the nuclear file is reintroduced to
the Council. This compels Iran to provide assistance to Moscow.
War Costs
Iran's costs for supporting Russia have increased,
including the bombings targeting ammunition manufacturing centers belonging to
the Iranian Ministry of Defense by drones. Statements made by Ukrainian
President's advisor, Mykhailo Podolak, that "the logic of war is repugnant
and makes the perpetrators and accomplices pay the price" have led Iran to
doubt Ukraine's involvement with Israel.
Furthermore, Russia's support has ignited disputes within
the Iranian elite regarding the development of relations with Russia. While the
Revolutionary Guard and some figures in the regime, such as the Chairman of the
Expediency Council, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, call for supporting relations
with Russia, other voices demand the opposite.
Due to the close ties between Moscow and Tehran, the West
has been unable to stop the latter from intervening in the war, despite a long
history of distrust and competition between Russia and Iran on various issues.
During the Russian war on Ukraine, the relationship between the two countries
has strengthened, witnessing unprecedented cooperation against the wishes of
the West.