Internal betrayals and external strikes: Tahrir al-Sham exposed to worst scenario
In light of the rapid
developments in Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is facing major security
challenges from external parties seeking to strike at its power and influence
in Syria.
HTS faces governmental and non-governmental adversaries,
including Russia, Iran, the United States, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
the Syrian opposition, allies, and ISIS. These parties have launched military,
air and missile attacks on HTS’s sites and bases in an
attempt to reduce its geographical area and weaken its combat capabilities.
Several breakthroughs
HTS was also subjected to several security breaches by
external parties targeting its leaders, members and information. In August
2019, unknown gunmen assassinated Abu Abdullah al-Masri, the deputy leader of
al-Qaeda, in his car in Idlib.
In January 2020, Abu Tariq al-Tunisi, an armed commander in
HTS, was killed in a US airstrike that targeted his car near the city of
Binnish.
In July 2020, HTS arrested dozens of its members on charges
of communicating with Turkish intelligence, the international coalition,
Hezbollah, or Syrian intelligence.
These breaches came within the framework of a raging
intelligence war between HTS and its enemies, in which it uses methods of
espionage, disruption, assassination and extortion.
These cases were not the first of their kind. In previous
years, HTS witnessed cases of internal liquidation of suspects or violators of
its policies.
Betrayals
In recent weeks, HTS witnessed a series of betrayals,
defections and arrests that increased the state of chaos and division within
its ranks, and these betrayals sparked discontent and anger among HTS leaders
and fighters and weakened its position. The beginning of these betrayals dates back to
the end of last June, when a number of HTS leaders
and fighters announced their defection from it.
The dissidents justified their decision by saying that HTS
had deviated from its original principles and goals and was now seeking a
settlement with the legitimate Syrian regime and the international community,
in addition to suppressing extremist groups that reject this settlement.
In response to these defections, HTS launched a massive
arrest campaign against suspects, detaining more than 200 people, including
prominent leaders such as the deputy leader of the Shura Council, Abu Yahya
al-Masri, and the commander of the Houran sector, Abu Hamza bin Laden.
Clashes
In a related context, Idlib Governorate witnessed violent
clashes between HTS and Hurras al-din (Guardians of the Religion), which
accuses HTS of treason and collusion with Turkey and Russia.
These clashes resulted in dozens of deaths and injuries on
both sides, amid fears of an escalation of confrontations in the future. These
betrayals, defections, arrests and clashes come in
light of a state of tension in Idlib Governorate.
In light of these dangers, HTS
appears to be in a state of confusion and weakness and unable to maintain its
ranks or confront its opponents.
