Recurring dangerous phenomenon: Significance of raising ISIS flag in Deir Ezzor demonstrations

ISIS outposts are still running wild in northern Syria, appearing and disappearing from time to time, especially in those areas under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), where battles are still taking place between the two parties. Despite the decline in the terrorist organization’s violence to a large extent after the killing of ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and the weakness of its leaders over the last three years, its operations are still ongoing in different forms, and a new generation of the organization began to appear in a different dress to announce its presence during the popular protests against the SDF, the last of which occurred during the demonstration launched by the people of Deir Ezzor to protest against the burning of the Quran in Sweden, in which unknown persons raised the black flag of ISIS, which raises questions about the implications of this situation.

Constant presence

Since the beginning of this year, ISIS has carried out more than 30 operations in Deir Ezzor alone, although the impact of these operations was limited compared to similar operations in previous years due to the severe restrictions that the organization suffers from in Syria and Iraq, whether from the coalition forces or the regular forces and local factions.

The terrorist organization has resorted more than once during the past period to a new trick in which it announces its presence on the ground and that it is still able to recruit whomever it wants from the areas controlled by the SDF.

On Thursday, July 6, the village of Al-Ezba in the countryside of Deir Ezzor, eastern Syria, witnessed an incident that was not the first of its kind, when unidentified persons raised the black flag adopted by ISIS during one of the popular demonstrations denouncing the burning of the Holy Quran in Stockholm, Sweden on the day of Eid al-Adha.

Local reports confirmed that this incident has been repeated more than once in recent months, as it was preceded by a similar incident a few days earlier in the Al-Basira area, as well as other incidents last year.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights stated that the incident prompted the SDF to launch a wide security campaign with the aim of searching for the demonstrators who raised the ISIS flag during the demonstration, and some of them were carrying light weapons and traveling in vehicles, which raised a state of fear among citizens of cracking down on them under the pretext of searching for ISIS members in villages and small towns, as well as the fear of the emergence of a new, more violent wave of ISIS members who are currently operating in secret and no one knows their identity or whereabouts.

Local reports noted that the SDF has not yet discovered the identity of those unknown persons who appeared during the demonstration.

Significance and indications

Since the announcement of the fall of ISIS in Baghouz in March 2019, the organization no longer has any areas of influence in the region, as the international coalition forces announced at that time the final fall of the ISIS caliphate. Despite this, it was expected that this event would turn into the beginning of a new phase for the organization in which it would resort to alternatives to offset these two spatial losses.

The first alternative includes abandoning the centralization of leadership and investing in the organization’s fragmentation in different regions of the world, enabling it to form states or ideologically affiliated entities there.

The second alternative includes relying on secret cells whose direction is unknown and which appear in a sudden and unexpected way to carry out operations.

In this last alternative, the organization uses an old strategy that relies on recruitment through secret individual advocacy, which centers around the gradual and direct influence with those who have tendencies to carry the ideas of the organization without pledging allegiance.

The history of ISIS confirms its ability to carry out this process easily through the use of social media and electronic applications, which enabled it in the past to penetrate European societies. Because of this, it succeeded in recruiting hundreds of European and non-European elements to join its ranks and declare allegiance to the leader of the organization in a very short time.

Therefore, the appearance of the ISIS flag more than once in public events in areas where it has lost its influence and is subjected to security restrictions cannot be considered accidental or without other repercussions. It is not inconceivable, according to the organization's experiences, that this event is the tip of the iceberg that hides beneath it more than it appears.