ISIS loses momentum in Syria and Iraq
ISIS is now facing many successive defeats and a shrinking
area of influence in Syria and Iraq.
In this report, we review the reasons for the decline of the
organization and whether it can be completely
eliminated.
Military pressure
One of the main reasons that led to the decline of ISIS is
the military pressure exerted by the international coalition forces led by the
United States, government forces in Iraq and Syria, and the armed factions
loyal to them on the sites and strongholds of the terrorist organization.
Since 2015, coalition aircraft have launched thousands of
airstrikes against ISIS targets in the two countries, destroying its
infrastructure and supply lines and killing its leaders and fighters.
Special forces from the coalition countries also
participated in intelligence, training and combat operations to support their
allies on the ground.
Following a nine-month military campaign In Iraq, the
security forces were able - with the support of the Popular Mobilization Forces
(PMF) and the Peshmerga - to recapture Mosul, the country’s second largest
city, which was the capital of ISIS in Iraq.
Other important cities such as Tikrit, Fallujah, Ramadi and
Hawija were also liberated.
In Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the
Kurdish-Arab coalition, supported by the international coalition, succeeded in
expelling ISIS from the city of Raqqa, which was considered the capital of the
alleged ISIS state. These forces also took control of the city of Deir Ezzor,
the last major city occupied by the terrorist organization in Syria.
Internal crises
In addition to external pressure, ISIS has suffered from
internal crises affecting its ability to maintain its authority and attract
more members. The organization has witnessed splits and disagreements between
its leaders and members due to ideological, material or tribal differences.
The terrorist organization was also affected by the decrease
in its sources of funding due to its loss of control over the oil and gas
fields, as well as the drop in the prices of these resources in the markets,
and it was forced to reduce the salaries of its fighters and cancel some of the
benefits it provided to them.
ISIS also faces difficulties in managing the areas it
controls due to a lack of qualifications and experience, as the organization
was unable to provide basic services to the population, such as water, electricity,
health, and education.
Popular rejection
ISIS was not able to win the hearts and minds of the local
population in the areas it occupied. On the contrary, it faced rejection and
resistance from various sects, religions and ethnicities.
The terrorist organization has angered the world with its
heinous crimes against civilians, its violations of human rights, and its
destruction of cultural and civilizational heritage.
ISIS has also shown extremism and strictness in applying its
erroneous interpretation of Islamic law, which has led to the displacement and
killing of thousands of Muslims and non-Muslims alike.
In this context, an Arab public opinion poll on the
international coalition against ISIS, conducted by the Doha-based Arab Center
for Research and Policy Studies in 2014, indicated that 85% of respondents in
seven Arab countries (Tunisia, Egypt, Palestine, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon,
and Iraq) oppose ISIS, while only 11% support it.
The poll also showed that 73% of the respondents believed
that the reason for the emergence of ISIS was due to “external interference in
the affairs of the region,” while 17% of them held “the political and economic
conditions in some countries of the region” responsible for the emergence of
the terrorist organization.
In light of these reasons, Iraqi
political analyst Idris Ali said that “ISIS has lost its strength and momentum
in Syria, Iraq and the region in general, but this does not mean that the
danger it poses has completely ended.”
He pointed out to the Reference that ISIS still maintains
some cells and individuals loyal to it in some areas, and it is also exploiting
tensions and conflicts in local communities to sow the seeds of extremism and
terrorism.
He added that the organization uses visual media tools to
terrify the public and show its strength.
“Therefore, confronting the organization requires a
comprehensive strategy that combines the security aspect, the political aspect,
and the cultural aspect. All local, regional, and international parties must
join efforts to remove the roots of extremism and terrorism, and to establish
security and stability in Syria and Iraq,” he explained.
Challenges facing the fight against ISIS
Ali stressed that sleeper cells and fleeing militants must
be confronted. Despite ISIS losing the lands it controlled, it is still able to
launch sporadic attacks in some areas, especially in Iraq and Syria, as well as
in some European and Asian countries.
“ISIS uses a variety of methods, such as suicide bombers,
improvised explosive devices, and attacks with knives or cars, and it targets
civilians, security forces, and religious and media figures, with the aim of
spreading terror and chaos and proving its ability to survive,” he continued.
Ali added that it is necessary to deal with ISIS returnees
from Syria and Iraq, as there are thousands of foreign fighters and their
families who joined ISIS in Syria and Iraq and who are currently being held in
camps or prisons under the supervision of the Syrian Democratic Forces or the
Iraqi government, especially since the forces are facing difficulties in
securing these detainees and holding them accountable for their crimes, as well
as requesting their return to their countries of origin.
Ali also discussed the need to confront ISIS-affiliated
propaganda and solicitation, as the terrorist organization is still using
social networks and visual media to show its strength and attract more
supporters and followers, especially as it focuses on spreading messages
highlighting the injustice of Muslims in some areas, justifying its actions
with religious arguments, or inciting its followers to launch attacks in their
own countries.