Repercussions of NATO summit on Russian-Ukrainian war

The NATO summit that was held in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, on July 11 and 12, with the participation of 31 member states in addition to Sweden and external partners Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, cast a shadow over the Russian-Ukrainian war, as the summit placed on Its agenda ways to confront the threats of China's strategic cooperation with Russia and to support Ukraine militarily and with security.

Revival

The recent NATO summit revived the spirit of the alliance, which French President Emmanuel Macron described prior to the Russian-Ukrainian war as being in a state of clinical death, as its current borders with Russia have doubled with the accession of Finland after it was no more than 1,200 kilometers, and the accession of Sweden allows for tight control of the Baltic Sea, while Washington has strengthened its presence in Europe. In addition, members' military spending has reached unprecedented levels, while the arms race and the development of defense systems have become more intense.

Calming fears of NATO’s eastern front countries

Strategic expert Jamal Taha confirmed that the Vilnius summit was keen to calm the concerns of the countries on NATO’s eastern front as a result of the threats they are exposed to from Russia by updating regional defense plans in the Arctic, the Baltic, and the Black Sea, depending on a multinational army with a strength of 300,000 soldiers, developing the party's role in making foreign and defense policies in the Euro-Atlantic field, promoting investments, and building integrated defense industries bases. This explains Washington's call-up of reserve forces to support its military position on NATO’s eastern front.

Taha added that the results of the recent NATO summit went beyond the Ukrainian war to developing a strategy for a comprehensive confrontation with Moscow, identifying deterrence and defense mechanisms in the face of security threats that member states could be exposed to, and this review is the largest since the Cold War and includes three geographical axes to confront Russian threats and terrorist acts. It also covers five types of attacks: air, land, sea, cyber and space. It also did not overlook the repercussions of the fragility of stability in the Sahel, Middle East and North Africa regions on the security of the southern front of the alliance (Italy and Spain) and on migration flows across the Mediterranean. It also took into account the strategic confrontation with China by advocating for the systemic challenges it poses, defending shared values, and a rules-based global order, including freedom of maritime navigation.

Plan to support Ukraine

Taha noted that at the conclusion of the summit, US President Joe Biden revealed the agreement of the seven major countries (Britain, Germany, Italy, Canada, the United States, France, and Japan) on a plan to support Ukraine, because the security of Ukraine is an integral part of the security of the Euro-Atlantic region, which imposes a commitment to establishing a free, independent, democratic, and sovereign Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders and enabling it to be able to defend itself and deter any future aggression. These pledges were translated into the formation of the NATO-Ukraine Council, but the activation of the guarantees does not take place with a collective commitment, but rather based on a series of bilateral agreements between Ukraine and the seven countries to be finalized before the next NATO summit in Washington in the fall of 2024.

The guarantees include the supply of modern weapons, increased interoperability with the alliance, support for the development of Ukrainian military industries and training of its forces, the exchange of intelligence information, cooperation in the field of cybersecurity and the economy, including energy security in order to meet urgent needs and ongoing reforms, couple security guarantees with strengthening information and intelligence support aimed at containing the Ukrainian leadership, and avoid taking unilateral decisions that could lead to an uncalculated escalation with Moscow.

Taha confirmed that the pledges announced by NATO countries amounted to €770 million in support, including 40 armored vehicles, 25 Leopard-2 tanks, and two Patriot air defense missile systems. France also retracted its traditional position of refusing to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles, as it provided SCALP cruise missiles with a range of 250 km. Norway increased its support to €220 million, and Britain provided Kyiv with 70 combat and logistical vehicles, as well as ammunition for Challenger-2 tanks. Several countries outside the G7, most notably Norway, joined these guarantees with $240 million, including a number of anti-aircraft missile systems, 1,000 drones. NATO partners also promised support, including 30 armored vehicles from Australia and new weapons and equipment from South Korea.

He pointed out that NATO is trying to introduce some qualitative change in the military balance on the battlefield before moving to the negotiating table, so that the political settlement does not reflect the humiliating defeat of Ukraine and the West, which supported Kyiv without limits. However, this does not preclude that any error in the calculations of escalation could expand the scope of the war and may turn it into a global war, the results of which are impossible to predict.