Moves that portend Trump's Mideast policies in 2019

The policies of US President Donald Trump toward the Middle East during 2018 were nothing but confused.

This was particularly so given the fact that most of the negative actions the American president took that year targeted traditional US allies in the region.

The ability of the Democrats to win a majority of seats in the US Congress also added to the challenges Trump is facing. America's two largest parties found themselves in a situation where they had to politically blackmail each other. This, of course, had its toll on US allies everywhere and especially in the Middle East region.

This was especially clear in the position the Democrats adopted toward Saudi Arabia, a strategic ally of Trump against the threats Iran pose to the security and the stability of the region.

In this study, we will try to forecast US policies in the Middle East in 2019, a year that started only days after Trump announced that he would withdraw his troops from Syria.

A Congress complex

Trump adopted the "America First" policy since he came to power. He hammered out a number of deals that reflected his nature as a businessman.

His nature as a businessman also influenced the way he dealt with allies. He does nothing but blackmail these allies, even without offering them anything in return. He asked Gulf states several times in the past two years to foot the bill of the protection his country offers them.

Following the Democratic victory in Congress, Trump became like a lame duck. This will limit his options as far as the Middle East region is concerned. This stands in stark contrast with the strength Trump enjoyed following his election victory and the victory of his Republican Party in the Congress elections in late 2015.

The resurgence of Democratic power will have its toll on Trump's policies on a number of regional files.

Regional files

International research centers believe that American foreign policy is in a state of reformulation, in the light of the "America First" slogan which is adopted by Trump.

In the past decades, American research centers and think tanks talked about nothing but the importance of the Middle East for the US. This was why these centers called repeatedly for increasing American involvement in the region.

However, with Trump taking over, the main idea discussed inside these centers is how the US can benefit the most from the region, without direct involvement in it. This was manifest in the latest US decision to pull out of Syria, which is expected to be implemented during 2019.

In the following part, we will try to predict American action on the different issues of the region:

1 – Counterterrorism

Washington used to consider the fight against terrorist groups, such as ISIS, a top priority. This was behind the arrival of US troops in Syria. It worked to kick the terrorist organization out of both Syria and Iraq.

The year 2019 will not likely witness major American involvement in the fight against terrorism. Trump is contented with the victories his troops scored against ISIS so far. These victories were also behind Trump's decision to pull his troops out of Syria and Afghanistan, even as outgoing defense minister James Mattis opposed these decisions.

2 – Direct military involvement

Washington will most likely reduce spending on military presence in the Middle East during 2019. This will be coupled with reducing this presence.

In October 2018, the Pentagon pulled Patriot air-defense systems from Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. It also decided to pull 7,000 troops out of Afghanistan.

The US is, meanwhile, expected to encourage the formation of regional alliances, such as the Middle East Strategic Alliance which was first unveiled by Trump in 2018.

3 – Middle East Strategic Alliance

The year 2019 may witness actual steps for the formation of the Middle East Strategic Alliance which was put forward by Trump in 2018. The American president did not, however, take actual steps to clarify the nature of the alliance.

The alliance is expected to include Egypt, Jordan and the countries of the Arab Gulf. Trump envisages the alliance as a force that plays a central role in preserving the stability of the region. It aims primarily at reducing American involvement in the region. The alliance also aims to curb Iranian influence in the region.

4 – Showdown with Iran

The showdown between the US and Iran is expected to continue through 2019, even as US troops will pull out of Syria. Trump insists, however, to make his troops stay in Iraq.

5 – Relations with Turkey

The release of an American priest held in Turkey in 2018 will most likely push US relations with Turkey forward in 2019. Trump wrote on Twitter that Turkey is capable of playing a role in fighting terrorism in Syria.

He added that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had told him that he would eradicate the remnants of ISIS in Syria.

Some people considered this a betrayal of the Kurds. They also viewed understandings between Trump and Erdogan as tantamount to an American green light to Turkey to invade Turkey and vanquish Kurdish militias.

6 – Ties with Israel

Trump is an opportunity for the political leadership in Israel. Relations between Washington and Tel Aviv are expected to strengthen even more in 2019. In 2018, Trump decided to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. There was talk also about what came to be known as the "Deal of the Century", a possible agreement between the Palestinians and the Israelis. The agreement will open the door for the institution of the two-state solution.