Brotherhood braces for Erdogan's new policy shift
Turkish President Rajab
Tayyip Erdogan is able to change his political skin whenever this serves his
own interests.
Although
the Service Movement, which was founded by Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, was
instrumental in Erdogan's arrival to power in Turkey and the success of his
Justice and Development Party, the Turkish leader was quick to turn against
Gulen's movement.
The
talk is now about a potential change in Erdogan's political skin. Known to be
the self-designated caliph of Islamist movements, Erdogan is reportedly going
to turn against the Muslim Brotherhood after turning his country into a refuge
for the members of the Islamist movement who had escaped from Egypt for years.
The
potential change comes as opposition grows against Erdogan's policies, amid
accusations that these policies, including his close ties with the Brotherhood,
are causing harm to Turkey's interests.
The Brotherhood is designated as a terrorist group in four of the most important states of the Middle East region, namely Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Syria. Pressure by the four states is turning into a major stumbling block for Turkish interests in the region, given the strategic weight of these states.
Political
reputation deterioration
On
January 18, Turkish authorities deported a Muslim Brotherhood operative
sentenced to death in absentia in Egypt. Mohamed Abdel Hafiz Hussein was
indicted for involvement in the assassination of the country's public
prosecutor Hesham Barakat.
The
deportation of the Brotherhood operative came only seven weeks ahead of the
municipal elections in Ankara, slated for March 31. The deportation was viewed
as a strong indication that Erdogan is going to stop the backing he offers to
the Brotherhood in order to protect his interests in the region.
Erdogan's
party needs to win the elections at a time its popularity is hitting a rock
bottom, the Turkish economy continues to deteriorate and Erdogan's political
reputation suffers, both inside and outside Turkey.
The
Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace expects major
shifts to happen in Erdogan's relations with the Brotherhood in the coming
months and years.
According
to Turkish public polls, Erdogan's party is expected to win only 38% of the
votes in the municipal elections. The same polls expect the Republican People's
Party to win 33% of the votes. This can narrow the gap between Erodan's party
and the opposition party, Turkish analysts said.
Change
scenario
Erdogan
is reportedly drawing up a new scenario with which he can get rid of his
relations with the Brotherhood as he did with Gulen's movement in the past.
The
Republican People's Party accused Erdogan of backing the Brotherhood. This
scares votes away from the Justice and Development Party, which compounds the
problems of the party, together with economic problems in Turkey and the
country's deteriorating relations with Egypt; Saudi Arabia; the UAE, and
Syria.
Turning
east
The
members of the Brotherhood have apparently realized that their time in Turkey
is close to coming to an end and that Erdogan will sacrifice them to protect
his own interests. This is why these members have started turning east, namely
travelling to countries, such as Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.
The
Malaysian interior minister conceded that his country can turn into a new
refuge for the members of the Brotherhood. He added in statements to the media
that Malaysia might agree to allow these members to enter it to reduce pressure
on both Qatar and Turkey.
Political
setback
Turkey's
policies have caused its total disconnect with Arab states, said Hesham
al-Najjar, a specialist in the affairs of Islamist movements.
The
same policies, he added, made Ankara lose its credibility and status as an
honest broker.
Al-Najjar
added that Erdogan has suffered a major political setback, which is undermining
his influence both inside and outside Turkey.
"This
is of course having its toll on the Muslim Brotherhood, the movement he used to
sponsor," al-Najjar said.
He
noted that the Brotherhood faces a huge problem with Erdogan changing his
positions.
Al-Najjar
referred to a recent meeting between Erdogan and Jordanian monarch Abdullah, a
close ally of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.
