Rouhani’s visit to Iraq: Suspicious behind-the-scenes business deals

The period following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 marked a significant improvement in Iraqi-Iranian relations after a diplomatic break and the eight-year war between the two countries from 1980-1988. Since then, the relationship between the two countries has increased to a high degree of cooperation, especially under the government of former Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari.

Accordingly, Iraq was one of the first countries in the Middle East resorted to by Iranian officials due to increasing pressure, especially after the US exited from the Iranian nuclear agreement. This is in order to emphasize the need to overcome US sanctions, continue economic cooperation, and end the political and economic isolation imposed on Tehran by Washington at the international and regional levels.

Iranian interests in Iraq

Iranian-Iraqi relations were strengthened under the new Shiite-majority government that followed the end of the US occupation of Iraq. Iran therefore took the initiative to recognize the new government, which in turn issued amnesty for Iranian detainees in Iraqi jails.

Tehran has recognized from the start that Iraq is the main gateway to control the Arab countries. Hence, Iranian influence in Iraq has taken on several dimensions: political, economic, security-wise and sectarian. Some analysts have noted that Iran has benefitted greatly from the mistakes of others in the region.

Tehran took advantage of the security crisis that plagued Iraq since the beginning of 2014, which was the same year ISIS seized a number of Iraqi provinces. Iran took exploited the opportunity to convince Iraq to intervene against ISIS, which resulted in the commander of the Iranians Revolutionary Guards Corps’ elite Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, gaining great influence and also led to the appointment of a military adviser to the Iraqi government.

As a result of this, increased security intervention in Iraq has led to Iranian influence on the economic and political level as well. Hence, Tehran has gained full control over Baghdad. The mullah regime has sought to enhance economic cooperation with Baghdad, as seen with the severe pressure exerted during Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s visit in light of decline of oil revenues under the US sanctions, especially as Iraq is the second largest importer of Iranian non-oil goods.

Significance of Rouhani’s visit

The conference held by the US in the Polish capital Warsaw in February reflected Washington's desire to besiege Tehran and increase pressure on it to the maximum extent possible. In this context, the implications of Rouhani’s visit are an indirect response to US policies against Iran inside and outside the region, which can be explained as follows:

1 - Iran’s desire to enhance opportunities for economic cooperation and bypass US sanctions

Rouhani described the current situation in Iran as one of the most difficult periods in the country's history, with the sanctions constituting a major war. In this context, Iran and Iraq signed several initial trade deals with the aim of expanding trade relations and helping to compensate for impact of the US sanctions.

The most prominent of these deals was a plan to build a railway linking Iraq’s southern oil city of Basra and the town of Shalamjah on the Iranian border. Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi's office also signed several memorandums of understanding, including agreements in the fields of oil, trade and health, as well as a set of measures to facilitate visa access for businessmen and investors.

2 - Limiting the influence of the United States in the region

Among the most important outcomes of the conference in Warsaw was the need to confront Iran’s influence in the region, which was reflected in US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s call for an international agreement on ensuring stability in the Middle East and curbing Tehran’s influence in the region.

Therefore, Rouhani’s visit was aimed at confirming Iran’s presence within the strongholds of American influence. The Iranian president began to rely on the Shiite sectarian axis in order to maintain a high level of relations between the two countries.

3 - Strengthening the Rouhani government’s position at home

The resignation of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif represented a major blow to Iranian politics, reflecting the size of the conflict between conservatives and reformists inside Tehran, as well as the weakness of the Rouhani government's position following the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the reimposition of economic sanctions.

Therefore, Rouhani’s visit sought to raise the morale of the Iranian people and emphasize the success of the government's policies abroad. This has a positive effect, especially at the economic level, as Iraq is a large market for Iranian products and an outlet to overcome US sanctions.

Repercussions of Rouhani’s visit to Baghdad

Although some Iraqis did not welcome Rouhani's visit to Iraq, a number of agreements were signed in a number of important areas.

1 - Iraq’s lack of reception to raising the level of cooperation

The lack of welcome during Rouhani’s visit to Baghdad was represented by Iraqi President Barham Salih's rejection of Tehran’s proposal to cancel travel visas to Iraq for Iranians. 

However, given that Iraq is still facing many problems, including the possible return of ISIS, Baghdad is not able to tolerate Iran's influence beyond a certain point. Moreover, it will be a long time before most Iraqi Shiites trust Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Arab states, so establishing reasonable relations with Tehran remains of great value to Iraq.

Statements made by Iraqi leaders indicate that none of them have agreed to Iran's vision of strategic relations between the two countries, instead placing Baghdad's relations with Tehran within its broader relations with all countries in the region.

In the same context, shortly after Rouhani left Baghdad, Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abd al-Mahdi mentioned a proposed visit to Riyadh, indicating Iraq’s desire not to allow its close ties with Tehran to harm its relations with other Arab countries.

2 - Iraq’s request to amend the 1975 Algiers Agreement

The Algiers Agreement was signed on March 6, 1975 between then-Iraqi Vice President Saddam Hussein and Iran's Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi under the auspices of then-Algerian President Houari Boumediene. The agreement considers a certain point in the Shatt al-Arab waters as the maritime border between Iraq and Iran, but successive Iranian governments have rejected this border demarcation, considering it a product of imperialism. Iran considers another point in the Shatt al-Arab waters, which was agreed upon in 1913 between Iran and the Ottomans, as the official border.

In 1969, the Iraqi government informed the Iranian government that the entire Shatt al-Arab waters were Iraqi waters. However, with the aim of suppressing the armed Kurdish struggle led by Mustafa Barzani, who was supported by the Shah, Iraq signed the Algiers Agreement with Iran in 1975 and the point set by the Iranian government was agreed upon as the border between the two countries.

Therefore, in the context of Rouhani’s visit, Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, Ali al-Sistani, said the Algiers Agreement should be amended to re-demarcate the border with Iran with regard to Shatt al-Arab.

3 - Rejecting the Iraqi law granting citizenship to foreigners

The idea of ​​amending the Iraqi nationality law, which was submitted by the government to the Iraqi parliament after Rouhani’s visit to Baghdad and proposed granting citizenship to those living in Iraq for one year, raised large waves of criticism. The proposal was rejected by Iraq’s parliamentary blocs.          

In the same context, former Iraqi MP Hassan al-Alawi launched a vehement attack on supporters of the law, as it would change Iraq’s demographic identity within a few years by allowing Iranians, Afghans or nationals of other countries to acquire Iraqi citizenship if they visit Iraq during the religious seasons and stay for a brief period.