IRGC designated terrorist, future scenarios

A US declaration that designated Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organization came as a sudden move that Washington has not considered before despite all the conflicts that hit relations between both countries.

President Donald Trump announced Monday the US will formally designate the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization, a move some in the administration had opposed over concerns about potential risks to US troops in the Middle East.

The step "recognizes the reality that Iran is not only a State Sponsor of Terrorism, but that the IRGC actively participates in, finances, and promotes terrorism as a tool of statecraft," Trump said in a statement that described the IRGC as "the Iranian government's primary means of directing and implementing its global terrorist campaign."

Administration officials said the move is a response to Iran's destabilizing behavior across the Middle East, including support for the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as for assassination plots in Europe and the US.

The announcement aims to drive a stake through the heart of a central institution in Iran. Formed after the Islamic revolution in 1979, the IRGC is not only Iran's most powerful military institution, it holds deep influence over domestic politics and the economy, with interests extending to and beyond the construction, telecommunications, auto and energy industries.

Following the decision, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned all companies and banks around the world from dealing with the IRGC.

Though the State Department has long labeled the Iranian regime the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, before today, it had never classified an element of a foreign government as a terrorist group. The IRGC joins a list that includes al Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, ISIS, and Boko Haram. It marks the latest move toward pressuring Iran since the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.

Journalist Osama al-Hitaimi, an expert on Iranian affairs, told The Reference in an interview that despite that the United States has long considered Iran a sponsor of terrorism, especially that supporters of  Khomeini’s revolution held hostages at the US embassy in Tehran for 444 days.

He added that Washington's reluctance to take that step before is due to many reasons; perhaps the most important is that the external role of the IRGC only started with the establishment of the «Quds Force» in the early nineties.

The second reason is that despite differences with Iran, the US succeeded in employing Iran and its security agencies, including the Revolutionary Guard, to achieve many American objectives in the region.

He pointed out that among the reasons also that Iran was able to convince the United States of the important role played by its agencies in the fight against terrorism in the region and that Washington did not want actual confront the real between the Iranian Guard forces and US forces deployed across the US bases in the region. This does not mean that the US was afraid of these confrontations; however, it sought to reduce the capabilities of this security institution, which has been able to establish itself in many countries in the region.

Hitaimi continued that two scenarios might come out of Trump’s decision; the first one is that Iran might also designate the US military a terrorist organization, as claimed by many Iranian Politian and military leaders, which could raise tensions between both countries.

The second possibility is that Iran, in its response to the US decision, will make sharp counter-statements, with no real actions, in the context of betting on time and holding new presidential elections that are likely to exclude Trump from power. At the same time, Iran might keep drawing attention to the role of the IRGC, through increasing the activities of some organizations in the regions or launching several hits to the power sector, all in pursuit of changing the US mind to reconsider its position on the IRGC.

He further added that repercussions of the US decision will not only be confined to its side, but to the entire region, especially Gulf countries, which contributed significantly in encouraging the US to take such step.

On the consequences of both scenarios, the Iranian expert said, “According to the first scenario, the outbreak of skirmishes between the US and Iran means that both will suffer losses, which could result in two other possibilities, either continue these skirmishes for a long time without developing into a real war, because Iran knows it would lose, and because the US is keen on preserving the current regime for other considerations.

“The other possibility is that Tehran would accept the mediation of some parties for talks to find a common ground, forcing the US to reconsider its stand on the IRGC, which could be in Iran’s favor,” he added.