Future of power struggle between ISIS and Taliban in Afghanistan

Deadly blows dealt to ISIS strongholds in Iraq and Syria led the organisation’s fighters to seek new hiding places elsewhere. ISIS fleeing Jihadists and their leaders sought safe havens in Afghanistan, Somalia and Libya, which are teeming with radical religious groups. Also due to the absence of State authority, these countries acted as the best environment in this regard. Landing in its new hiding place in Afghanistan in 2015, ISIS found itself engaged in a bone-breaking rivalry with Taliban movement.

Uncertainty over the future of both movements are growing high. The tragic rivalry between the two movements have also triggered speculations that the situation in the war-ravaged Afghanistan will get worse.  

This study aims at exploring—via several axes—the future of ISIS-Taliban power struggle and its impact, whether positive or negative:

First-Historical background

Taliban and Al-Qaeda were established in 1978 to resist the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to allegedly protect the Afghan government in the face of Jihadists. The Cold War between the US and the old Soviet Union raged when the US intervened to support the Afghan Mujahedeen to bring its rival the Soviet Union to its knees. In the meantime, Arab and Muslim countries provided political, logistic and military support to volunteers. Known as Afghan Arabs, the Mujahedeen were deployed  in Afghanistan to fight the Soviet troops. 

The departure of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1989 and the collapse of the protégé Afghan government in 1992 instigated a tragic civil war. Taliban, whose fighters belong to the Pashtun tribes, managed to establish itself as the chief Jihadist group in the country. The movement committed itself to implementing its own vision of the Muslim Sharia, which was revealed after seizing power in the country in 1996. The Taliban-sponsored government collapsed in 2001 when the US invaded Afghanistan.

Al-Qaeda-linked ISIS in Afghanistan was established by Abu-Mosaab el-Zarkawi, a Jordanian. Relationship between Al-Qaeda and ISIS underwent three staged as follows:

A-Solidarity and overlapping relationship (1989-2003)

During the anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan, el-Zarkawi showed enthusiasm to Al-Qaeda’s ideology. Returning to Jordan in 1993, he formed Baiyat Al-Imam group—aka Tawheed wa Hijra. However, Jordanian security authorities launched a crackdown on el-Zarkawi and his men and sent them to jail; they were granted a royal pardon in late 1990s.

Returning to Afghanistan, el-Zarkawi launched a training camp for Jihadists. He also formed an independent Jihadist network in Iraq to fight the American invasion of this Arab country in 2003.

B-Merger (2004-2010)

El-Zarkawi’s Tawheed wa Hijra weaved relationships with several Sunni groups to have control on larger areas in in Iraq. Tawheed wa Hijra also drew the attention as the chief Jihadist group fighting the American troops in Iraq. In October 2004, el-Zarkawi declared loyalty to Al-Qaeda, naming his group Jihadist Al-Qaeda in Iraq.

The anti-US war in Iraq and the Jihadists’ keenness to consolidate their unity compelled the parent Al-Qaeda and el-Zarkawi’s group to suspend their difference over the religious legitimacy of ISIS attack on Shi’a targets in Iraq. Iraq-based ISIS managed to overshadow the parent Al-Qaeda after winning victories in the battlefield in Iraq from 2003 to 2006. It also declared the establishment the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria in 2006.

C-Division and Competition (from 2011 till now)

Following the withdrawal of the American troops from Iraq in 2011, ISIS and Al-Qaeda were locked in a tragic rivalry, which opened cracks in their cooperation. Under the leadership of Abu Bakr el-Baghdadi, ISIS arrested the attention in the Middle East in general and in Iraq and Syria in particular. The Jihadist group made use of the chaos instigated by the Arab Spring, and the political and military weakness of regimes in different Arab countries to deepen its Islamic state in these neighbouring countries. 

Jabhat Al-Nusra (Al-Nusra front) stubbornly refused to shift its loyalty form Al-Qaeda to ISIS.  An ideological cracks opened; and an exchange of accusations escalated. In 2014, a war broke out between ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Syria. The big death toll prompted Al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman el-Zawahri to sever his relation with ISIS.

Second-ISIS in Afghanistan:

Deadly blows dealt to ISIS in Iraq and Syria by the US-led military coalition; and the parallel blows by Russia in Syria, forced ISIS to search for alternative environments for its leaders and fighters. The Syrian army and the Iraqi army managed to dismiss ISIS from towns it had occupied before. In the meantime, the Kurdish fighters destroyed ISIS strongholds in Kurdish areas. ISIS sought war-ravaged countries, such as Afghanistan, Somalia and Libya, as safe havens for its fighters. On January 26, 2015, ISIS spokesman Abu-Mohamed el-Adnani declared the establishment of Khorasan state. The terrorist organisation also formed separate Jihadist groups, whose fighters hailed from Taliban, Uzbekistan Islamic Movement, Caucasians, etc. Khorasan state was branded a terrorist organisation by the US in January 2016.

Third-Reasons behind rivalry:

El-Zarkawi was arrested in Jordan in 1990 after security authorities raided his home and seized weapons and explosives. He was released after six years and travelled to Afghanistan. A training camp he established there was overcrowded with Palestinians, Jordanians and other nationalities. El-Zarkawi went to Iraq via Iran to allegedly resist the American invasion. 

During his stay in Afghanistan, signs of bone-breaking competition became visible for reasons as follows:

1-     Ideological differences between ISIS and Taliban increased. ISIS resisted Taliban’s nationalist endeavour to establish an Islamic state in Afghanistan.  ISIS instead sought to launch a global caliphate across the Muslim world before spreading its borders worldwide.

2-     While Taliban firmly refused to relinquish its nationalist (Pashtun) identity;   ISIS obtained its legitimacy from its individual vision of the Muslim Shria. 

3-     Taliban’s internal divisions prompted large number of its fighters to join its rival ISIS. Taliban was accused of compromising Muslim Sharia, giving instead top priority to political gains. Taliban’s ex-leader Mullah Mohamed Omar, who was allegedly killed, was accused of adopting disputable understanding of Islam. He allegedly discounted the Muslim Sharia in favour of tribal laws and norms; Mullah Omar was also attacked for allegedly recognizing international borders between sovereign countries. Mullah Omar’s visions in this respect increased divisions in Taliban and encouraged bigger number of its fighters to join ISIS.   

4-     Taliban fighters, who belong to the big Pashtun tribe, felt uneasy that ISIS was bidding to seize authority and annex Afghanistan to its planned Islamic caliphate.  

Fourth-signs of rivalry:

1-Seducing followers of the rivaling organisation

In an attempt to encourage fighters to shift their loyalty, ISIS and Taliban disgraced each other and exchanged disgraceful accusations. The magazine Dabeq was used as Taliban’s platform to attack and harshly criticize ISIS. For example, Dabeq published on June 16, 2015 a statement by Mullah Omar’s successor Mullah Mansour, in which he seriously warned that Taliban would not allow ISIS to have control on Afghanistan. Mullah Mansour’s warning came after fighting broke out between Taliban and armed militias allegedly belonging to ISIS in eastern Afghanistan. Mullah Mansur also called upon ISIS to join a holy war Taliban launched against the Americans. 

Retaliating, ISIS launched local radio stations to propagandise—in Arabic, Pashtun and Persian—its ideology. However, ISIS voices were silenced in July 2016 by American airstrikes, which destroyed the facilities. ISIS also used the social networks to attract the attention of larger number of young people and cast doubt on Taliban’s ideology.  

2-Geographical expansions

ISIS bid to have geographical expansions in tribal communities whether in Pakistan or Afghanistan at the expense of Taliban authority therein.  Clashes erupted and the two adversaries suffered big casualties.

3-Using barbaric technique to steal the limelight

In their separate bids to claim incontestable authority, ISIS and Taliban launched barbaric attacks on civilians, policemen, oldiers and American troops in Afghanistan. 

4-Aftermath of the power struggle 

There is high probability that ISIS-Taliban bone-breaking struggle will weaken the latter in its negotiations with the Afghan government in Kabul. Such a struggle also will confuse Taliban’s strategy and exhaust it; the movement will find itself engaged in fighting on different warfronts. The power struggle will also weigh heavily on Taliban’s financial and human resources. It is known that Taliban has been fighting to re-seize power it lost in 2001. There is hardly any doubt that Kabul government will be the winner in this battle.  

On the other hand, ISIS-Taliban struggle prompted the latter to strengthen its ties with the Iranian regime in Teheran. Taking into consideration the influence Pashtun tribe enjoys in Afghanistan, the Taliban-Iranian rapproachment will help slow down the Shi’a-Sunni confrontation in the region.

ISIS-Taliban competition also has a different dimension. On the one hand, ISIS is endeavouring to have control on the world; and on the other hand, Taliban’s aim is limited to having supremacy in Afghanistan. This should not mean that Taliban is a moderate nationalist movement. The hard fact is that Taliban is  a radical movement attempting to implement its controversial concepts of the Muslim Sharia.  For example, Taliban despises women; and art, civilization and freedom of faith are condemned.  

The presence of ISIS in Afghanistan prompted the US to deploy more troops in late 2017. Washington also sent its military experts to train the Afghan army, which fights ISIS and Taliban. The US also launched air strikes on ISIS and Taliban strongholds in the country. On April 13, 2013, the US dropped the Mother of Bombs on ISIS strongholds, killing about 46 of its fighters.

Conclusion:

A tactical coalition between ISIS and Taliban seems probable. The two movements have to unite to resist the attacks by the US in collaboration with the Afghan government. Such a step was taken by ISIS and Al-Qaeda on January 14, 2016 when ISIS-linked Adnan Abi Waleed el-Sahrawi declared the alleged Jihadist Alliance in the face of a joint force formed by five African countries: Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Chad. The African force is receiving  support from France and different Western countries. The spokesman of ISIS in Sahara said that its fighters would collaborate with Al-Qaeda-linked Nasrat-e-Islam wa al-Muslimoun to fight the five-state joint force  in the region. The spokesman declared ‘Cooperation to Fight Kafir”.

On the other hand, there is high probability that differences between Taliban and ISIS will encourage the former to help accelerate negotiations with the Afghan government.  The new initiative was declared by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on March 5, 2018 to end the 16-year old civil war.