Security conditions deteriorating in Afghanistan four months before elections

Mina Mangal, a former reporter for the Pashtun news channel ToloTV and a parliamentary adviser, was shot dead on May 11. Perhaps her support for the professional integration of women was what angered her two killers who were riding a motorcycle and were not identified.

In the past 16 months, 18 journalists have been killed in Afghanistan and non-governmental organizations have also been attacked in recent weeks, including the American organization KIRAL, where 10 of the organization's staff were killed in a bloody attack in early May. Confederate International offices were also targeted by a suicide bomber commando on Wednesday (May 8th).

The security forces liquidated the jihadists and it took 6 hours. Four civilians and a policeman were killed during the attack, and 24 others were wounded. On the same day, the prosecutor's office was targeted in the city and the Taliban quickly claimed responsibility for the attack, asserting that the non-governmental organization is one of its targets because of its programmes to promote gender-based interaction.

The Taliban are in large areas of Afghanistan, including the area about 80 kilometers south-east of and around Kabul, Ghazni, Farah, Kunduz and Maimana.

The movement feels a new momentum, especially since it has been engaged in diplomatic negotiations since 2015 and has an office in Doha since 2013 with strong support from Pakistan. After the terrorist attacks of 2018 (which also involved the local branch of Daesh) Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on February 28 last year presented a "peace proposal" to the Taliban. The proposal included the formation of a political party for the Taliban Islamists, release their families and lift international sanctions against them.

This proposal was a major concession. But in return, Gani demanded respect for the rights of citizens, especially women, and the recognition of the constitution. Thus, the Taliban will be included in the lists of the upcoming September 20 elections, which will also be attended by pro-Turkish Jubeidin Hekmatyar, Masoud Ahmed Wali, former ministers and party leaders, with 18 lists.

Reintegrating the Taliban into political game

The United States has done so much, through its own representative in Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, who is of Afghan origin and has done much to reintegrate the Taliban into the political game after fighting it.

In 2013, the United States supported the opening of an office in Doha, despite opposition from former Afghan President Hamid Karzai. On Feb. 14, the Islamists launched a "message to the American people" proposing that "the Afghan issue be resolved through peaceful dialogue."

Zalmay Khalizad, who has been in Afghanistan since September 2018, held four Doha Dialogue sessions in September and November 2018, then in the United Arab Emirates in December 2018 and again in Doha in January.

In December, the United States announced its withdrawal of 7,000 troops from Afghanistan, equivalent to half the total number of US troops in the country.

The meeting of January 2019 took place after six days of negotiating a new framework for negotiations. The Taliban welcomed the decision of the United States to withdraw 7000 of its soldiers, but insisted on the need for full withdrawal of Americans. The Taliban said it would ensure that the country was not a "platform for international terrorist groups”.

The Americans made other efforts by asking Pakistan in October 2018 to release Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, one of the founders of the Taliban movement, who went immediately to Doha to re-chair the political committee. Zalmay Khalilzad confirmed after a fifth meeting in February that the talks were "strong and fruitful" on the US withdrawal schedule.

In March, negotiations ended and the Kabul government expressed its displeasure at not participating in the negotiations, which also discussed the possibility of a ceasefire and the abandonment of terrorism. But the latest wave of terrorist attacks in May suggests that the Taliban are not yet ready to abandon terrorism.

But Russia does not want to lose its role in the region and has held two meetings in recent months with the head of the Taliban office in Qatar, Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, who took the opportunity to criticize the draft constitution of Afghanistan harshly.

However, Afghan observers expect the United States to include the Taliban in the transitional government before the next elections to avoid bloodbath during the elections. President Ashraf Ghani felt weak and announced in February the formation of a large Jirga Council, a traditional consultative body with thousands of prominent figures, women and youth. The idea is to draw red lines to reintegrate the Taliban into the political game, especially with regard to the constitution and the rights of citizens.