In al-Qaeda’s stronghold: ISIS is crowding out the Taliban and Afghanistan is paying the price

The arms of the current international terrorism pose a threat to global stability, at a time when the United States seeks to reach an agreement with the Afghan Taliban before the full withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and ending the war that has lasted more than 17 years.

American pressure

In its negotiations with the Taliban, the United States is pressing for an abandonment of support for al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, showing an opportunity in Afghanistan for ISIS to organize and prosper at the expense of the other party.

Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Afghanistan both terrorize in order to gain control of the land, and ISIS is trying to strengthen its presence in the al-Qaeda stronghold, which is full of terrorist elements recruited to the ranks of ISIS in light of the organization’s defeat in Syria and Iraq, as well as an attempt to improve its global image and keep its followers and supporters under control and continuing the support.

On the other hand, Afghanistan is the land of paradise and prosperity for al-Qaeda, and its main ally, the Taliban, is seeking to regain control of Afghanistan.

The ISIS-Khorasan branch is considered among the best of the so-called ISIS states announced in a number of countries around the world, as it works there to launch attacks against civilians. The latest was a suicide bombing of a wedding in Kabul that killed 63 people. Meanwhile, the United Nations estimates that the organization has 2,000-4,000 fighters.

ISIS threat in Afghanistan

National security experts warn that ISIS poses a serious threat to the United States and other Western countries, especially if an agreement is reached between Washington and the Afghan Taliban on the withdrawal of US troops.

"The United States should be very concerned about ISIS using Afghanistan to launch attacks on the West," said Jennifer Cavarella, director of research at the Institute for the Study of War.

Unlike the Taliban, which is party to the negotiations in Afghanistan largely aimed at implementing local rule, ISIS's targets are "international targets" that include the "infidel" countries of the West, making the organization more dangerous internationally.

The ISIS branch in Khorasan, Afghanistan receives support from other organizations in Afghanistan and Pakistan through links with other extremist groups in the region, which provide protection and surveillance, along with supplies and weapons.

Amir Gadun, a terrorism expert at the West Point Counterterrorism Center, said ISIS has a range of ties with other armed organizations across Afghanistan and Pakistan, which provide them with ideological, logistical and operational support, such as an alliance with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

ISIS is not a party to negotiations between the Taliban and the US government, nor the Afghan government, and if an agreement is reached with the Taliban, the focus of all parties will become ISIS, which both the Afghan National Security Council and the Pentagon have deemed a serious threat to Afghanistan and the world.

A report issued by the Pentagon said that ISIS-Khorasan will remain a permanent threat in Afghanistan even if the Afghan government and the Taliban reached a political settlement.

The threat comes amid US government promises to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan next year at the latest, which extends to the next election campaigns.

Afghan elections

The 2020 US presidential campaign has forced candidates to take part in plans to end the 18-year war in Afghanistan, where two Democratic presidential candidates, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, a Democrat from Hawaii, have already pledged to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan within a year of taking office.

US President Donald Trump’s timetable for implementing the withdrawal, however, is much less clear. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said last month that he had received instructions from Trump to reduce the number of US troops there before the 2020 elections, but a day later Pompeo backed down and said the United States will withdraw its troops "as soon as we can there."

"Certainly there are places where ISIS is stronger today than it was three or four years ago. But its caliphate project is over, and its ability to launch external attacks is much more difficult," Pompeo added.

David Petraeus, the retired army general who oversaw US forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, argued in a Wall Street Journal article that “the cost of keeping a few thousand troops in Afghanistan is dwarfed by the price the nation will pay strategically and economically if al-Qaeda returns or ISIS builds a terrorist platform there.”