Why is Africa the largest market for terrorist activity?

Terrorist groups need a platform from which to declare that they are still strong and able to expand and survive despite the death of their leaders. This platform is represented by the Christmas and New Year season as the world prepares to celebrate the annual occasion.

Europe has been a model platform for terrorist acts at Christmas time, as happened in December 2016 incident that took place in the German capital Berlin, when Tunisian Anis al-Omari drove a van into a Christmas market, killing 12 and wounding 100.

Interestingly, ISIS announced that the Christmas season would be appropriate for carrying out its threats, especially in Europe, through what are known as sleeper cells or lone wolves. But these threats have now been focused on Africa, which is the largest market and open field for terrorist groups to expand their activities, which have increased by a whopping 80% in 2019 compared to the previous year.

Looking at the terrorist operations that the continent witnessed before Christmas, there was the killing of 11 Christians in northwest Nigeria, where ISIS released a one-minute video clip of masked men who were stabbed before being shot.

Targeting Christians is one of the strategies of the organization, as it carried out operations against Egyptian Christians in Libya. The terrorist organization also bombed a church while the worshipers were preparing for their prayers in 2016, in the St. Peter and St. Paul’s Church in Cairo. In the following year in 2017, it carried out another operation that targeted the Mar Gerges Church in the city of Tanta and the St. Mark’s Church in Alexandria. The organization has also targeted Christians in Pakistan and other Asian countries. The organization’s operations generally target those who differ ideologically and doctrinally.

In Somalia, the terrorist Al-Shabaab group pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda and carried out a car bomb attack that killed more than 60 people, mostly students. The explosion occurred while a bus carrying students passed near the customs center in the center of the capital, Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab’s strength had weakened, but it soon recovered and began carrying out major operations against state institutions and the army.

In Burkina Faso, 42 civilians were killed and a military detachment was attacked that resulted in the deaths of 10 soldiers, marking the worst attack in the country in five years.

The escalation of violence in Africa was a reason why Pope Francis used his Christmas message to denounce the actions of extremist groups in Africa, especially in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Nigeria.

Reasons for the increased presence of terrorist groups in Africa

First: The historical presence of terrorist groups in Africa is ancient. The continent is alluring and attractive to terrorist groups, which have existed in countries such as Mali, Somalia and Nigeria. The continent was the subject to al-Qaeda before the emergence of ISIS, as Abu Ubaidah al-Banshiri (Ali Amin al-Rashidi) believed that a terrorist presence should be established in Africa, until he drowned in Lake Victoria in 1996.

Second: The presence of incubators for these groups exists in African countries that suffer from terrorism, as is the case in Nigeria, where Muslims constitute a majority of up to 75% of its population, and the Muslim-majority countries surrounding Lake Chad. Therefore, the rhetoric of terrorist organizations echoes among Muslims who experience marginalization, the absence of justice, poverty, and the spread of corruption, which makes for a fertile environment to strengthen the voices of terrorists.

Third: The armies of the countries suffering from terrorism lack training and are unable to confront the terrorist groups, which have developed to a higher capacity than the armies. The terrorists use guerrilla tactics, while Africa’s weak armies reflect their societies and states, which appear confused and unable to deal with terrorism.

Fourth: There is a lack of agreement on the feasibility of foreign forces being present in the Sahel region as a rapid intervention force to confront terrorist operations, as is the case with the French Barkhane force present in the G5 Sahel countries, which seems to be faltering and facing losses. French President Emmanuel Macron recently visited both Ivory Coast and Niger, and he clearly demanded that the G5 Sahel states express their position regarding the French presence there. Macron considered talk about France’s “imperial presence” in those countries to be pure lies.

Fifth: The intervention of AFRICOM forces to confront terrorist groups in Somalia and East Africa has declined, especially with a US tendency not to want more involvement in African countries, while the intervention of African forces in Somalia does not seem to be able to curb the terrorist Al-Shabaab movement that controls the entire region of southern Somalia.

Sixth: A large number of ISIS and al-Qaeda militants were transferred from the areas where they faced defeat to Africa, especially Libya, where terrorist militias with similar ideologies dominate the seaports. There is an increase in foreign fighters joining the side of local African groups, and they share their expertise to these groups. Meanwhile, the international forces training the armies in both East and West Africa do not appear to be serious about the training process.

Seventh: The open geography of the countries surrounding the Sahel and Sahara region is vulnerable to these groups moving throughout the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahara and expanding to neighboring countries. The control of these groups over large areas of the region’s countries, such as in Mali, provides them a base from which they can freely travel to neighboring countries.