An analysis on how Iran may retaliate for Soleimani’s killing

Iran has threatened to retaliate for the killing of Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, who were killed on January 3.

Gen. Soleimani is a top Iranian military commander and the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' elite Quds Force. He is also Iran’s top official in Iraq.

"Soleimani's martyrdom will make Iran more decisive to resist America's expansionism and to defend our Islamic values. With no doubt, Iran and other freedom-seeking countries in the region will take his revenge," said Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in a statement.

The Pentagon said Friday that President Donald Trump ordered for the US airstrike in Iraq that killed General Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards, in a "decisive defensive action" to protect US personnel abroad and deter future attacks being planned by Iran. 

“General Soleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region. General Soleimani and his Quds Force were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more,” the Pentagon said.

However, Iran has not revealed how it would retaliate for Soleimani’s killing. A number of analysts and researchers have explained Tehran may react.

themselves.

Tagi said Soleimani was the Iran’s ‘Shah” in 4 countries. “These militias are now in a defensive position,” he said.

Analyst Naguib Ghallab said there would be indirect terrorism, citing that Iran is facing a big dilemma, “Iran will react by indirect terrorist operations,” he said.

Researcher Mohamed Abbas Nagui, an expert on Iranian affairs, suggested that Iran would react in another scenario, which is war by proxy.

 “Iran targets the US interests via war by proxy. However, any terrorist action will be met with decisive measures,” he added.

Economic analyst Babak Emamian said Iran could threaten to stop of oil supplies or close the Strait of Hormuz. “However, it will not be able to do that,” he said.

“However, the only threat which is possible is that Iran would target Saudi oil facilities,” he added.