Deep crisis for Iran after Ukrainian plane crash
Iran is in for a new trouble, after the crash of a Ukrainian passenger plane with 176 people on its board, including 83 Iranian nationals.
The plane crashed
immediately after it took off from Imam Khomeini Airport.
The plane
tragedy happened when Iran was attacking with missiles two US embassies in
Iraq.
Scenarios
1
– Technical failure
Following the
accident, Iran hurried to say that it was caused by a technical failure. It did
this in order to keep accusations that it had caused it away from it. The
surprising thing is that Iran claimed the plane crash had happened because of a
technical failure, even before conducting an investigation into the accident.
This was why it failed to present any proof in this regard. It only wanted to
evade responsibility for causing the tragedy.
2
– Stray rocket
The US and
Canada said the accident was most likely caused by a stray missile. Iran's
rejection to hand over the two black boxes of the plane backed this
possibility. Tehran then showed flexibility on the handover of the boxes after
pressure was put on it.
US investment
The US
appeared calm after the Iranian attack on the two US bases in Iraq. US
President Donald Trump said everything was ok. This shows that the attacks did
not cause any harm to his country.
Nonetheless,
the US apparently plans to use the plane crash tragedy in order to fire back at
Tehran.
The American
Federal Aviation Administration issued a ban against the use of the Iranian and
the Iraqi airspaces. It also barred US planes from flying over the Gulf of
Oman.
Trump at the
same time said something horrible had happened.
British Prime
Minister Boris Johnson said, meanwhile, that the Ukrainian plane was shot down
by a surface-to-air missile.
He added that
the missile might have unintentionally fired at the plane. Johnson also called
for opening a transparent inquiry into the accident which killed four British
citizens.
Iranian
dilemma
The fact that
many parties are affected by the accident causes a big problem for Iran. For
the US, the accident is a very good chance for mobilizing the international
community against Iran which now threatens air and maritime aviation.
Possible
scenarios
Iran may try
to conceal facts about the accident in an attempt to buy time. Nevertheless,
this can encourage the US to impose yet a new regime of sanctions on Iran.
If Iran
concedes that it shot down the plane, it will have to pay huge compensation.
This will harm the Iranian economy even more.
If the
countries affected lodge a complaint against Iran at the UN Security Council,
the council may impose international sanctions on Iran.
