Assassination attempt against Kais Saied: Repeatable experience and open scenarios of violence

The Tunisian scene could re-ignite against the backdrop of the expiry of the month deadline set by Tunisian President Kais Saied for the set of exceptional measures he took on July 25, which is scheduled to be completed on Tuesday, August 24.

While Ennahda (the Brotherhood's wing in Tunisia and the one most affected by the parliament's freeze) is preparing to raise the argument against the president within the cold war between them, Saied blew up the scene with new information that carries with it new accusations against Ennahda.

Only fear God

Speaking during the signing ceremony of an agreement to distribute social aid for the benefit of poor families, Saied touched on groups describing themselves as Islamic, which he did not name, saying, “I tell them I know what you are managing. Thinking about assassination, killing and blood... I will move as a martyr if I die today or tomorrow to the other side of existence with the Most Just of the just,” referring to God.

Ennahda’s statement

With remarkable speed, Ennahda was the first to comment on the information revealed by the president, as it initiated a statement that ignored the insinuations referred to by Saied about being behind the assassination attempts, calling on the security and judicial agencies to “do what is necessary” to reveal the conspiracies that the president referred to.

The statement indicated that the aim of the investigation is to reassure public opinion and fortify Tunisian national security, denouncing “those conspiracies” and stressing the need to “alert all Tunisians of their danger and repercussions.”

War of cold comments

From the same premise that Ennahda adopted in its statement, which is to rise to allusions to cold comments,  MP Samir Dilou, a member of the movement’s Shura Council, said, “The fragility of the political, social and even psychological conditions in our country makes it unable to bear just talking about plans to practice violence or murder.”

Dilou claimed in statements to the Turkish Anadolu Agency, which supports the Islamists, “that someone might think of targeting the president of the republic; this is not only crime and terrorism, but madness.”

He warned that making these accusations, which he described as dangerous, regardless of their meaning and their credibility, would lead the situation to becoming more tense.

Nizar Jlidi, a Tunisian political researcher residing in France, believes that the Ennahda movement is the only political force that commented on Saied's statements, considering that this is an acknowledgment of the clarity of the signal made by the president.

The movement realizes that it has sleeper cells inside and outside Tunisia under the name of the movement's secret apparatus, Jlidi pointed out, noting that this apparatus, which was established in 1984, is a black point in the history of Tunisian security.

Jlidi reiterated Saied's talk about the assassination attempts to an incident published by Tunisian media in recent days reporting that the security forces arrested a lone wolf who was planning to assassinate the president during his visit to the coastal city of Monastir (160 km south of the capital, Tunis).

The security forces carried out the task of combing the area in which the terrorist was arrested, in addition to opening an investigation into the incident by the competent authorities, he explained.

Jlidi pointed out that Tunisian security has faced challenges against the background of information that about 20 ISIS terrorists have entered Tunisia from the western Libyan borders in recent days. Basically, as well as a public security battle.

He pointed out that the president wanted to be frank with the people in a brief statement about the challenges he faces, unlike the advances he is making on the social level and the file of fighting corruption and confronting the corona pandemic, as there are security threats to his life personally.

Post-deadline

With regard to the deadline set by Saied for the end of the month (it will end next Tuesday), Jlidi expected that the president would choose in the next few days a government whose prime minister would be more legal than political, in addition to including economic figures who would be able to provide solutions to Tunisia's poor economic situation.

Regarding the fate of the frozen parliament (52 seats for Ennahda out of 217), Jlidi suggested that Saied would resort to Article 163 of the Tunisian constitution, which bans any parliamentarian from his seat for life if it is proven that he obtained foreign funding during his electoral campaign.

This chapter threatens parliamentary blocs that have already received money in electoral propaganda, including Ennahda, he pointed out, noting that the president put forward partial elections that will be an option after implementing Chapter 163.

Jlidi did not rule out that Ennahda would accept any violent reaction to this scenario, pointing out that the movement has nothing left, whether its weapons or sleeper cells, pointing out that talking about any popularity that would help it in this situation is not accurate.

He concurred on Ennahda’s option of resorting to violence based on the Libyan scene, specifically in western Libya, where it is believed the Libyan Brotherhood will not delay in providing support to Ennahda in Tunisia.

However, Jlidi stressed that the scene as a whole is moving in the direction of the Tunisian president, who has boosted his popularity with a popular consensus on the inevitability of exposing corruption files.

Jlidi cited Saied's statement that the situation would not return to the pre-July 25 scene of corruption and political blackmail.

It is noteworthy that Saied took a series of measures that were popularly accepted at the level of fighting corruption, the latest of which was the Tunisian security’s cordon last Friday of the Anti-Corruption Authority and the evacuation of its employees, especially the placement of its former president, Chawki Tabib, under house arrest.

In a reading of this decision, Tunisian reports stated that the president made this decision using the emergency law in force since July 25, after it was proven that the independent institution had deficiencies, and in order to avoid destroying any files on corruption.