Growing influence Al-Shabaab in Somalia brings to mind era of Islamic Courts Union

The field progress of the terrorist Al-Shabaab movement in Somalia has raised concerns about the repercussions of the deteriorating security scene in the country, as the movement’s achievements recall the period of control of the Islamic Courts Union (organizations headed by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed after the fall of the Mohamed Siad Barre regime in 1991 and ruled most of Somalia) over the capital Mogadishu.

There are several revealing indications of the growing influence of Al-Shabaab that warn of the danger of the security situation in Somalia, the first of which is that during a short period in December 2021, the movement was able to control several strategic cities within the framework of its “cutting off cities” strategy, through which the control of vital cities aimed to paralyze the movement of the states, create chaos, and disperse the forces, such as controlling the town of Yaq-Arar near the city of Kismayo, the largest city in the state of Jubaland, in addition to three strategic cities in the state of Galmudug, namely Mataban, Eyl Tiri and Gadon, before the Somali forces announced the restoration of control over the latter on December 19, 2021.

Al-Shabaab is also close to controlling seven other cities, apart from the Somali cities that are witnessing battles between government forces and the movement, either to repel the latter's attacks or to regain control over them, such as the city of Bala’ad in the Middle Shabelle region of Hirshabelle State, located 37 km from the capital Mogadishu, on which the Somali forces were able to repel an attack by the movement on December 30, 2021, as well as the city of Dhobley on the Somali-Kenyan border and other cities, especially border cities located between Somalia and Kenya and Ethiopia.

Despite the movement’s keenness to target several cities in the states of central and southern Somalia, it is remarkable that Al-Shabaab’s attacks focus on Galmudug state, which reveals the state’s strategic importance for several considerations. The first is that it is a central state bordered on the east by the Indian Ocean, from the north by the state of Puntland, from the west by Ethiopia, and from the south by the state of Hirshabelle, and therefore it is a link between the Somali states. It also has sea ports that facilitate linking the movement with the outside world, thus strengthening the sources of support and financing of the movement and providing it with the necessary logistical materials such as weapons and explosives, in addition to facilitating the movement of terrorist elements.

The second is that the state is one of the most important polling stations through which 24 parliamentary seats are elected, and therefore targeting the state comes in implementation of the threats made by the movement about participation in the electoral process, thus impeding the electoral process in the country, meaning Somalia’s entry into extended rounds of chaos and instability.

The third is the political and security turmoil in the state following the conflicts that erupt sometimes between tribes and other times between the Somali forces and the Ahlu Sunna wal-Jama'a (ASWJ) organization, a former ally of the Somali government. ASWJ has made a strong comeback since October 2021, and it seeks to achieve field gains that make it an important figure in the political and security scene, which Al-Shabaab seeks to employ to exhaust the forces in side battles.

The Al-Azhar Observatory for Combating Extremism issued a report in November 2021 explaining that the East African region witnessed 36 terrorist attacks, in which about 60 people were killed and 126 others injured, in addition to the kidnapping of one person, of which Al-Shabaab had the lion’s share, with 32 operations in Somalia and two operations in Kenya, which is more than the number of recorded operations carried out by the movement in August 2021.

Al-Shabaab relies on the mechanism of explosions, which result in a large number of dead and injured, including civilians, such as the explosion carried out by the movement outside a school in Mogadishu on November 25, 2021, which killed at least eight people, including children, as well as the bombing that targeted a restaurant in one of the neighborhoods of Jowhar, the capital of the state of Hirshabelle in southern Somalia in December 2021, which led to the killing of two local representatives. In addition, the movement carried out assassinations targeting government and security officials, such as the assassination of one of the electoral delegates who participated in the election of members of the Somali House of the People on January 9, 2022, while the governor of Hirshabelle State, Ahmed Faal, was subjected to an assassination attempt in December 2021.