Mullah regime’s pragmatism: Exploiting Russian military operation to maximize Tehran's gains

The Russian military operation in Ukraine has sparked a great controversy between supporters and opponents, but what is remarkable is the Iranian position on the crisis and its support for Moscow, as Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi initiated a phone call to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to confirm Tehran’s support for the operation, stressing that the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) poses a threat to the security and stability of independent countries.

This support sparked criticism from the reformist movement in Iran, which stressed that this would negatively affect the Vienna nuclear negotiations, while newspapers affiliated with the mullah regime asserted that Iranian support for Russia would bring huge political and economic gains, as Tehran would have an opportunity to export its gas to Europe, compete with Russia, and quickly revive the nuclear deal.

Regime newspapers attack

The Iranian regime's newspapers launched a sharp attack on Ukraine, blaming Washington and NATO for the crisis due to abandoning Kyiv, which trusted the United States and the West and provoked Russia, with the result that it is now paying the price for its trust of the West.

Iranian support for Russia has sparked criticism on social media, as Iranian activists asserted that this crisis will negatively affect the Vienna nuclear negotiations and not as the mullah regime expects, and that Tehran will be the biggest loser from this crisis, saying that it is known that Russia does not want the nuclear agreement negotiations to succeed, because if the negotiations succeed, Iran will be able to export gas to Europe, which Moscow does not want. They called on officials in Iran to condemn the Russian attack.

In addition, a number of Iranians protested in front of the Ukrainian embassy in Tehran, affirming their solidarity with Kyiv and chanting slogans against the Russian president and his supporters, saying “Death to Putin”, “Long live peace”, “Death to Putin’s supporters”, and “The Russian embassy is a spy den.”

Mullah regime’s pragmatism

Regarding the Iranian support for the Russian attack, Osama al-Hatimi, an Egyptian writer specializing in Iranian affairs, explained that Tehran's position on the Russian-Ukrainian war, albeit indirectly, was strongly supportive of the Russian side, as Iran considered that the expansion of NATO a serious threat to the security of countries, just hours after Moscow announced its military operation in Ukraine, which means accepting Russia's justifications for these operations and in support of its narratives that this is a defense of its national security, a position that satisfies the Russian administration.

In an exclusive statement to the Reference, Hatimi pointed out that Iran's calls for dialogue and negotiations are nothing but worthless consumerist calls, an attempt in various ways to focus its efforts on achieving the greatest amount of gains from the crisis, as it appears in this position to be completely indifferent to the outcome of the situation of many countries, especially the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, which all analyses confirm are the first affected by the war.

Hatimi added that Iranian gains are numerous as a result of this crisis, some of which are political ones related to easing international preoccupation with the Vienna negotiations, as it is no longer the first issue that preoccupies the world as it had been a few days ago, which will give Iran a greater opportunity to maneuver and implement its demands to resume the implementation of the nuclear agreement or sign a new agreement, while Tehran secured a more supportive Russian position as it is in the same trench of resistance against the United States. Also, the potential financial gains come as a result of the rise in oil and gas prices, on which the Iranian economy depends heavily, and the increasing possibilities that it will open the doors to its export of more oil.