Fears that Jordan's prisons will turn into incubators for ISIS

Despite the weakness of ISIS due to the defeats it has suffered and the presence of hundreds of its members in prisons, the fear of these elements still exists, especially in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, whose prisons are overcrowded with ISIS members, and they could become breeding grounds for new terrorists despite the decline of those belonging to the organization there.

Retreat of ISIS in Jordan

The report of the Terrorism Index in Jordan in its fourth edition issued by the Shorufat Center for the Study of Globalization and Terrorism for the year 2021 revealed a decrease in the number of Jordanians belonging to ISIS, warning at the same time that prisons are still breeding grounds for terrorists, while Jordan maintained its level among the medium-security countries in 2021, as it ranked 63 out of 163 countries in the world on the Global Peace Index.

The year 2021 witnessed the weakness of ISIS in particular, as Jordan’s General Intelligence Directorate (GID) confirmed that the number of members belonging to the organization decreased from 1,250 members at the beginning of the war in Syria in 2011 and did not exceed 750 members in 2021 as a result of the return of some of them to Jordan and the killing of others on the battlefields, according to the report.

Despite the fact that no actual terrorist operations took place in 2021, the GID’s thwarting of two terrorist attacks in Irbid in northern Jordan and Ghor al-Safi in the south at the beginning of the year proved that Jordan has witnessed two terrorist attacks on average annually for three decades, as the GID managed to thwart the first operation in the first quarter of last year, when an ISIS cell consisting of four members aimed to attack the Jordanian and Israeli border guards with light weapons in the Ghor al-Safi area in the Jordan Valley, while the second operation was thwarted in March 2021, which aimed to attack an intelligence building in Irbid with light weapons.

Regarding the type of targets, the report indicated that cadres of the security services and armed forces were targeted, warning that this trend deepened in 2021 through the results of the investigation into the Jordan Valley and Irbid operations. It expected this to increase in the future, as well as targeting Israeli border guard soldiers in the Jordan Valley.

Role of social media

With regard to recruitment methods, social media is the primary method for propaganda and recruitment of members and supporters of ISIS in Jordan.

As for prisons, the report said that they spawn terrorists, and this was evidenced by investigations into the frustrating operations in the Jordan Valley and Irbid. The recruitment and planning of the two operations took place in prisons and then occurred after the release of the accused. It also considered the feasibility of reform, rehabilitation, reintegration and aftercare programs.

The report pointed to the fading of interest in the national strategy to combat violent extremism and terrorism in Jordan, which began in 2014, considering that it did not witness any interest in developing or updating this strategy.

According to the report, no contemporary country or society is immune to terrorism globally, and armed conflict remains the main driver of terrorism, with more than 90 percent of deaths caused by terrorism in 2021 in countries that were already in armed conflict.