Western weapons arrive but may not be enough to save the day

Predicting how the war in Ukraine is going to be resolved has become the biggest challenge for the US and Nato allies — especially for the American intelligence community.

US intelligence sources say that, looking at the war from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, there might come a time when diminishing returns could force President Putin to make a significant change in his calculus.

This could come about if Ukraine succeeds in carrying out some form of “spectacular” against the Russian invasion force, similar to the devastating strike on the Black Sea Fleet flagship cruiser, Moskva, in April. Or it could come when the international sanctions really begin to bite, affecting the Russian people to a much greater extent than at present.

For the moment, the US intelligence agencies see no evidence of a strategic shift on Putin’s part. They believe Putin is still resolved to carry on the war, for years if necessary, in the expectation that the commitment of the West to support Kyiv with billions of dollars of weaponry and to endure rising food and energy costs will begin to waver.

Right now the resolve to back Ukraine for as long as it takes is not in doubt. But is the flow of weaponry doing anything more than just delaying the inevitable i.e. a ceasefire under Putin’s terms when the Russian leader decides he cannot or need not pursue more ambitious aims?

 “I’m a realist, I know the Russians aren’t going to turn around tomorrow and drive back across the Russian border,” a senior US military official said.

All the official could say with confidence was that the Ukrainians were continuing “to make the Russians pay for whatever it is they’re trying to achieve”.

Is this the main strategic objective? If so, is there not a risk that Ukraine and its western allies are fighting a war that cannot be won? To put it from Moscow’s point of view, of course, it’s a war Putin cannot afford to lose.

There is no question that the latest rockets and artillery delivered by the West, especially the long-range Himars system, are having a big impact on the battlefield. Based on their own and US intelligence, Ukraine is using Himars to hit Russian ammunition dumps — a far better tactic than spraying Russian positions with 3,000 artillery shells a day.

 “From a military standpoint, the costs to Russia have been far higher than would be the case without such assistance from the West,” a former Pentagon official said. “It’s possible to speculate on what might push the war in various directions.

“But so far the ‘speculators’ have been generally wrong. No Russian Blitzkrieg. No Russian collapse. No striking results from unprecedented sanctions. It’s best to admit that there are a range of possibilities and try to think through how we would deal with each, as opposed to attempting to predict what happens next.”